New Bitcoin whales spark sell-side risk as unrealized gains hit $9B

Bitcoin (BTC) whales have more reason to sell than at any time in Bitcoin’s recent history as their unrealized profits hit records.

Key points

• Bitcoin short-term holder whales saw unrealized profits spike to $9 billion on Sept. 4, the largest reading ever tracked by CryptoQuant data.
• Profitability is sensitive to small BTC price fluctuations, falling by $1.5 billion on a 2% daily drop in BTC/USD.
• Binance exchange reserves are approaching two-year highs near 692,000 BTC.

Short-term holder whales sit on giant unrealized profits

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that newer whale investors currently sit on unrealized gains worth exceeding $9 billion.

This is the largest figure CryptoQuant has recorded since it began tracking whale profitability in 2016. The reading concerns short-term holder (STH) whales — wallets holding coins that are less than six months old. 

On Sept. 4, the STH whale cohort’s aggregate unrealized profit hit a new multi-year high of $9.07 billion. However, being sensitive to movements in spot price, it fell by 17% the day after as BTC/USD declined just under 2%. This is because the breakeven point of STH whales is closer to the current spot price than that of LTHs. The cost basis of STH whales currently sits near $69,000. 

In accompanying analysis, CryptoQuant warned that further BTC price downside may induce selling from STH whales, with newer investors traditionally seen as being speculative in nature and more sensitive to smaller market shifts. 

“Unrealized profit at that scale is exposure. A cohort sitting on a record paper gain can turn into sellers the moment price wobbles, and STH whales are historically the fastest to take profit when it’s available,” it commented.

Binance BTC reserves near two-year high

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on existing ask liquidity on exchange order books keeping spot price pinned below $83,000.

The risk of selling from short-term holders is also indicated by onchain data, which shows growing inflows to exchanges since the start of May. On Sept. 2, BTC reserves on Binance, largest exchange, reached 691,658 BTC, the highest figure since November 2024.

Commenting on the trend, however, CryptoQuant described whale participation in exchange inflows as “relatively contained.”

“The key tension is clear: liquidity and positioning on Binance remain orderly, but the elevated reserve base means that any meaningful breakout above $83K will require strong, sustained spot absorption from ETFs and organic demand to clear the available supply,” it wrote on Sunday.

CryptoQuant reiterated the need for Bitcoin spot demand to reenter, a key factor missing from the market throughout 2026.