Hashdex tips spot Bitcoin ETFs to trade by Q2, followed by Ethereum

Hashdex, one of the 13 asset managers vying for a spot Bitcoin (BTC $41,691) exchange-traded fund, expects to see the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States land by the second quarter of 2024, followed by a spot Ether (ETH $2,209) ETF.

“The exact timing of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. remains unclear, but in 2023, the narrative around this product switched from a question of ‘if’ to a matter of ‘when,’” said Hashdex’s U.S. and Europe head of product Dramane Meite in a 2024 outlook report, published on Dec. 4.

We believe U.S. investors will have access to a spot Bitcoin ETF by the second quarter of the new year and that a spot Ether ETF is likely to follow.

Hashdex is one of 13 asset managers with a spot Bitcoin ETF application before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). It has also pitched a hybrid Ether ETF with futures and spot contracts to the regulator.

While Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have pinned 90% odds that spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved in the days leading up to Jan. 10, 2024, Seyffart has previously noted that this refers only to the 19b-4 applications and that the separate Form S-1 must also be approved for an ETF to launch.

Seyffart noted in November that “there could be weeks or even months between approval and launch.”

Companies use Form S-1 to notify the SEC of proposed rule changes and require sign-off from the agency’s Division of Corporation Finance.

In Hashdex’s report, Meite said spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs would see “legacy asset managers with thousands of staff and trusted brands” offer their customers a crypto product for the first time.

He believed this would unlock a $50 trillion market, larger than Europe, Canada and Brazil combined — the only three global markets with spot crypto exchange-traded products.

Meite expected most of the interest in single-asset ETFs will focus on Bitcoin and Ether, “given their name recognition and little differentiation among incumbents.”