Ethereum Price Forecast: Investors hold steady amid sustained Middle East geopolitical tensions

Ethereum price today: $2,030

• Whales maintained holdings of 20.81M ETH amid slight distribution from retailers and ETF investors.
• Ethereum's open interest averaged 13M ETH last week.
• ETH has to reclaim $2,108 to give credence to the near-term recovery theme.

Ethereum's (ETH) onchain and derivatives data showed investors largely maintained their positions over the past week, even as prices traded relatively horizontally.

Following a week of sustained Middle East geopolitical tensions that largely saw Ethereum (ETH) average around $2,000, investors across the whale cohort saw minimal changes in their holdings, while retailers saw outflows. 

The balance of wallets holding 10K-100K ETH remained unchanged at 20.81 million ETH. However, wallets with a balance of 100-1K and 1K-10K ETH collectively reduced their holdings by 200,000 ETH.

Similarly, institutional investors have also been showing weakness lately, with ETH ETFs recording three consecutive days of net outflows, offsetting inflows recorded earlier last week, per SoSoValue data.

Meanwhile, on the derivatives side, open interest (OI) remained steady over the past week, averaging 13 million ETH, according to Coinglass data. Open interest is the total worth of unsettled contracts in a derivatives market.

While OI was steady, funding rates have flipped positive over the past two days after a weekend of sharp negative funding. The extended switch between positive and negative funding indicates that investors' sentiment remains uncertain and overly cautious.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH faces $2,108 test again

Ethereum recorded $61.7 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, led by $34.1 million in short liquidations, according to Coinglass data.

In the daily chart, ETH trades at $2,033. The near-term bias remains mildly bullish as price holds just above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,020 while remaining well below the 50-day EMA at $2,225, framing the current move as a recovery within a broader corrective phase.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 and a Stochastic reading in the mid-50s confirms balanced but improving momentum after the bounce from recent lows, suggesting buyers retain a slight advantage while overbought conditions remain distant.

Immediate resistance lies at $2,107, where a sustained break would open the way toward $2,388, followed by $2,746 as a more distant cap aligned with the declining 50-day EMA cluster. On the downside, initial support sits far below at $1,741, ahead of $1,524, with $1,404 marking a deeper bearish target if sellers regain control and price slips back below the 20-day EMA.

As long as ETH holds above the short-term average and continues to pressure the $2,108 barrier, the near-term recovery theme remains in place. A rejection would keep the broader corrective structure dominant.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)