Crypto: Optimism just to halt the decline

Market overview

The crypto market capitalisation rose by 1% over the past 24 hours, rebounding from the local lows reached the previous day, thanks to a shift towards riskier assets. However, the cryptocurrency market remains 10% below its local peak in early May and 43% below its global peak in October last year. By comparison, over the same period, the Nasdaq 100 gained 4% and 21%, respectively, challenging the notion of a direct correlation between these indices. This by no means indicates widespread negativity, as over the past 24 hours Stellar has gained 23%, IOTA 13%, and Algorand 10%, while the worst-performing coins among those actively traded were Bitcoin Cash (-6.3%), Tron (-3.3%) and Filecoin (-2%).

Bitcoin dipped below $73K on Thursday and is trading just above that level at the start of Friday. Weak performance against a backdrop of record highs in equities points to underlying demand weakness, entirely consistent with reports of institutional investor outflows. Technicals are also on the sellers’ side, who are continuing to recoup the failure below the 50-day moving average following the failed attempt to breach the 200-day moving average earlier in May. Such buyer apathy keeps the possibility of a decline to the $65–67K range as the main scenario. 

News background

Bitcoin could fall to $60K by October, and only then will a new bullish trend begin, according to analyst Benjamin Cowen. In his view, the market is still moving within the framework of the ‘historical model’ of a four-year cycle, despite the launch of ETFs and growing demand from large investors.

The cryptocurrency industry is not ready for the transition to post-quantum cryptography, despite recent progress in the field, according to developers at Quantus. They estimate that a direct transition to post-quantum signatures without changes to the BTC network architecture would drastically reduce the number of transactions per block.

According to Arkham Intelligence, US authorities have transferred altcoins totalling around $1.9 million to Coinbase Prime, the institutional arm of Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange. The Department of Justice may sell off altcoins before Bitcoin, as it considers BTC a reserve asset for long-term storage.

The crypto industry is stepping up pressure on US politics ahead of the midterm elections. Hundreds of millions of dollars have already been directed to supporting loyal candidates, and the balance is increasingly shifting towards the Republicans, notes CoinDesk. 

The crypto market has rebounded but remains weak: Bitcoin hovers near $73K, while a drop to $65–67K remains the base case amid ETF outflows and a worrying backdrop.