Crypto is looking for support

Market overview

The crypto market cap fell by around 5% to $2.82 trillion over the last 24 hours, and it twice touched $2.78 trillion, the lowest level since April last year. As we expected, the downward momentum in the commodity and stock markets only increased pressure on the cryptocurrency market, and the sell-off occurred at elevated volumes as market participants tightened their stop orders during the prolonged consolidation. Our worst-case scenario assumes a decline to the $1.8-2T range, with an extension to 161.8% of the initial downward momentum in October-November.

The Crypto Sentiment index fell to 16 by Friday. This is the lowest level in the last six weeks and a return to extreme fear, from which it was only possible to escape for two days during this week. We never tire of reminding you that although such sentiment values are perceived as a buying opportunity, a more cautious approach suggests buying when exiting the territory of extreme fear, to avoid the risks of sharp downward slippage.

Bitcoin has lost 6% in the last 24 hours, at one point falling to $81K and repeating the lows of late November. Now the market is testing the strength of the support that withstood the onslaught of sellers last year. Another 10K below is the area where the peak values for 2021–2022 and the first half of 2024 are concentrated. If it fails to hold, catch BTC at $52-60K. However, in the coming days, it is still worth focusing on BTC's dynamics near $80K, which may not be so easy to break through and which many see as a buying opportunity.

News background

More than 22% of the market supply of Bitcoin is in the red. Critical support for BTC is located at $83,400, according to Glassnode. Losing this level threatens a decline to the ‘true average market price’ of $80,700. With a further decline, long-term holders may begin to take losses, which will accelerate the decline.

This year, the speculative hype around cryptocurrencies will subside, and they will become the basic financial and settlement layer for the entire internet, according to Wintermute Ventures. Stablecoins will be the main means of payment in the digital economy.

Ethereum's market supply on exchanges has been declining for the sixth consecutive month due to the hype around staking, Santiment notes. Since July last year, the figure has fallen by a third to 8.15 million ETH.

In 2025, the total volume of illegal cryptocurrency transactions reached a record $158 billion, increasing by 145% over the year, according to TRM Labs. Over the course of the year, hackers stole $2.87 billion in nearly 150 incidents.

The USD1 stablecoin, issued by US President Donald Trump's company World Liberty Financial, reached a market capitalisation of $5 billion in less than a year since its launch, becoming the fifth largest stablecoin in the world.