Bitcoin rises toward $64,000 as Coldcard exploit, strategy sales recede – ADA advances

Bitcoin rose 1.6% over the last 24 hours, climbing as high as $64,160 to the highest since July 31 before retreating. The rebound followed a selloff spurred by an exploit that targeted a cold wallet over the weekend and bitcoin sales by the world’s largest corporate holder.

Roughly 1,816 BTC, about $114 million, was removed from more than 5,200 addresses since July 30, according to researchers tracking the cold wallet hack, which exploited a flaw in the Coldcard wallet’s firmware.

In addition, Strategy (MSTR) sold 1,638 Bitcoin between July 27 and Aug. 2 at an average price of $63,957, its third sale of the year and below the company's $75,419 average cost. Strategy uses the proceeds to fund dividends and buybacks on its preferred stock, STRC.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to “extreme fear” at 25. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $61.5 million outflows last week, while $170 million came in yesterday. Ether ETFs saw $27.4 million inflows last week, with another $11.4 million leaving on Monday.

The yen slumped almost 4% drop after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the U.S. joined Japan in coordinated intervention, reviving carry-trade comparisons to August 2024. Bitcoin's 52-week correlation with the pair at minus 0.90 points to dollar strength as the larger risk, however.

Derivatives positioning

Elevated positioning in ATOM futures: ATOM, up nearly 9%, is one of the best-performing tokens of the past 24 hours. The rally is accompanied by elevated positioning in the futures market, as evident from open interest (OI) perched near a record high of 80 million tokens.

ATOM’s funding rates and CVD are negative: Both annualized perpetual funding rates and the 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) are negative. This points to a growing bias for shorts or bearish plays, a sign the spot rally is being hedged. After all, the 12% gain in three days comes off record lows, meaning the token still remains broadly in a downtrend.

Record OI in ADA: Cardano’s ADA is another standout performer. Its futures OI hit a record high of 2.79 billion coins. ADA’s 24-hour CVD is the highest among majors, a sign of buyers being more aggressive by trading at market orders rather than passive limit orders. Funding rates, too, hold slightly positive. Both data points validate the spot price gain.

Listless BTC and ETH futures: The spike in bitcoin OI seen 24 hours ago turned out to be brief, dropping back to 740K BTC, where it has largely held in recent weeks. A similar lackluster trend is seen in ETH’s OI.

Mixed altcoin profile: Sentiment in the top 20 altcoins is mixed, with tokens like ADA, TRX, ZEC, AVAX, and ETH seeing positive CVD while others are negative.

BTC’s vol index at key levels: BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has now dipped to nearly 36%, its lowest since May 31. It points to market calm and no signs of panic demand for options, yet it calls for caution as it trades cheap relative to its 30- and 200-day averages. Volatility is said to be mean-reverting, so it could rise, especially as it’s trading close to a historical floor.

Options market dynamics: Activity in Deribit-listed BTC options is concentrated in the $60,000 put and calls at strikes $70,000 and $72,000. So, $60,000 to $72,000 is the range beyond which volatility and the speed of the directional move may gather pace. In BTC’s case, the $70,000 call is the most traded option of the past 24 hours, while in ETH’s case, it is the $1,900 call.

Token talk

ADA ripped to $0.195, the highest since July 4, with market cap gaining 24% on the week, Santiment data shows. That makes the Cardano coin one of the few clean standouts in an otherwise choppy altcoin market, where most of the major cryptocurrencies are little changed or lower.

Buyers are climbing, the crowd is leaving. Cardano has 7,070 fewer non-empty wallets, addresses holding any ADA at all, than it did two months ago, so the rally happened without the sidelined holders coming back. A rising price while holder counts fall usually means stronger hands are absorbing the supply that weaker ones are dumping, and retail hasn't yet chased the move.

The setup cuts both ways. Fewer holders soaking up a price move is a sign of conviction from whoever is buying, but it also means the rally is thin. If retail returns and holder counts turn back up, it confirms the move. If the price keeps climbing and wallets keep falling, it is a smaller group holding up the tape.

There's actual ecosystem work behind it, not just a bounce. Cardano has been shipping, with Leios testnet progress, its Hydra scaling layer, Mithril upgrades, a Pyth price-feed integration and fresh Catalyst funding for developers, giving the rebound more grounding than a pure sentiment pop.