Bitcoin's bull market hinges on a level it has not cleared yet

BTC) trades near $80,244 after gaining 14.3% over the past week, moving within $3,000 of the level two research firms identify as a key test for the market

CryptoQuant says Bitcoin has already entered a new bull market, though confirmation depends on a close it has not yet made.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

CryptoQuant calls a regime shift

In its latest report, CryptoQuant said that the recent rally has “flipped Bitcoin into a new market regime.” The Bull Score has climbed from 30 to 80 in a single week. That is its most bullish reading since October 6, 2025, when BTC traded at $124,000.

Eight of the firm's 10 valuation metrics now register as bullish. Apparent spot demand is expanding at its fastest monthly pace since late December.

Spot and futures demand are also growing together for the first time since early October 2025. BeInCrypto reported that Washington policy signals started the rally. Trump's remarks about a Bitcoin purchase added to the move, and back-to-back short liquidations amplified it.

However, the firm said that confirmation requires a daily close above Bitcoin's 365-day moving average. That level sits near $83,000.

“This is a genuine regime shift, the initial phase of a new bull market… but it needs official confirmation,” the report read.

The wall sits where confirmation lives

Glassnode mapped the market differently and arrived at around the same number. Every overhead structure the firm tracks now sits between $81,000 and $86,000.

“That band is where the recovery's demand meets its test,” the firm said.

The first self-custody cost-basis shelf begins at $80,800, leaving the price just below it. Dealer gamma turns negative at $82,300, and a surviving cluster of short liquidation levels extends to $86,000.

Long-term holder supply fills the $83,000 to $86,000 band. Glassnode frames the move as a staged recovery. Its own confirmation marker is a settled close beyond $83,300 with ETF demand holding.

Bitcoin holders are selling into the rally

Some holders are not waiting for that test. Long-term holders have started distributing, and analyst Darkfost found their supply turned net negative.

The monthly average now reads minus 21,000 BTC, reversing a peak of plus 286,000 BTC in early June. Realized profits are climbing with price. 

The analyst put weekly average net profits at a 2026 record, with close to $1 billion booked over the past seven days, driven mainly by short-term holders.

Darkfost noted that counterbalancing demand has offset those sales, holding up BTC. CryptoQuant flagged separate signs of strain. It put trader unrealized profit at 20.5%, the highest since June 2025, and reported a record $614 million in whale realized profits on August 20.

Santiment data shows the crowd has not chased the advance, with weighted sentiment turning negative on Wednesday for the first time since the rally began. 

Below current prices, Glassnode says weakness would first show at the $70,000 short-term holder cost basis. The $62,000 to $65,000 floor sits beneath that, held by the recent buyers who funded the move.