Bitcoin slips near $63,500 as traders look past CPI to Fed’s next tests

Bitcoin fell to near $63,500 on Thursday, down over half a percent on the day and almost 2% on the week, as an in-line U.S. inflation report proved enough to calm nerves but not enough to move the market.

Hyperliquid's HYPE was the standout, up over 3% to $56 though flat on the week. Tron added marginally to just under 34 cents and is up 2% over seven days. Everything else fell. Dogecoin dropped almost 3% to 7 cents, XRP over 1% to $1 and is down almost 5% on the week, BNB over 1% to $610, Solana under 1% to $76 and Ether marginally to $1,880.

July's numbers landed almost exactly where economists expected. Headline inflation rose 0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year, with the core measure that strips out food and energy up 0.2% and easing to 2.5%.

That was enough to trim the odds of a Federal Reserve rate rise in September, which futures markets cut to about 38% from 46% before the release. Gold rose 1.3% in the immediate aftermath, ether just over 1%, bitcoin around half a percent and S&P 500 futures 0.2%.

Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk that bitcoin moves hardest when inflation data forces a rethink on rates, gaining an average 3.25% across the three occasions in the past nine releases when inflation came in below expectations.

A downside surprise on July 14 was followed by a 4.24% rally. "An in-line report can remove a tail risk," Selby said. "It takes a genuine surprise to create a catalyst." He further sees room for the Fed to wait, with shelter costs up just 0.1%, energy down 1.5% and gasoline down 2.9%, and some goods categories now lapping last year's tariff-driven increases.

The next tests are the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers later this month, the Sept. 4 jobs report and the Sept. 11 inflation release.

Equities took the news better. MSCI's Asia Pacific index rose almost 1% with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix the biggest contributors, and Korea's Kospi rallied almost 4% into a technical bull market, up 22% in ten days.

The mood was not uniform, with Cisco falling over 4% after hours on underwhelming earnings and Cerebras Systems dropping 17% on declining hardware sales.

Brent crude snapped a six-day run of gains, easing after a stretch that had taken it to $90 a barrel. That came as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps adviser, General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, said Iran was preparing to carry out operations on U.S. soil under a new military doctrine.