Bitcoin: See no evil

Market overview

The crypto market cap is on an upward trend, having surpassed the $2.5 trillion mark, the region of previous local highs and the 50-day moving average. Consequently, the technical picture is becoming more favourable for the bulls, who are steadily reclaiming one high after another. This gradual growth appears to be a further sign of the recovery’s robustness. At current levels, the crypto market cap is approaching the 61.8% retracement of the latest downtrend, and all eyes are on whether the recovery momentum will fade. The consolidation may simply become broader but lack the strength to turn into an uptrend.

The sentiment index stands at 23, on the verge of exiting the extreme fear zone and at its highest level since 29 January. This could be a new trap, just as it was in the second half of January, when the index’s recovery was followed by a fresh wave of selling and new lows.

Bitcoin is looking on the bright side, approaching the $74K level and already hitting seven-week highs. The leading cryptocurrency closed Sunday above the 50-day moving average and began Monday with a further upward move. This could well prove to be a prelude to a rise towards $85K – the region of recent significant lows. However, it is quite possible that near the $75K mark, the bears will take control, leaving BTC within a corrective rebound pattern following a decline. From a cross-market analysis perspective, the bears have more arguments on their side, but Bitcoin has often moved ahead of the market, reflecting its underlying shifts in sentiment.

News background

Bitcoin has passed the ‘stress test’ of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, on-chain metrics indicate a lack of strength among the bulls for a medium-term breakout, according to Glassnode.

Ethereum risks continuing its decline due to the ‘adoption paradox’ — the widening gap between network activity and the asset’s price dynamics, CryptoQuant notes. An exit from the bearish phase should be facilitated by capital inflows into the ecosystem and a reduction in cryptocurrency inflows to exchanges.

BlackRock has launched an Ethereum ETF with staking. At launch, assets under management reached $100 million. Around 82% of the staking rewards received will be paid out to investors on a monthly basis — like dividend-paying ETFs.

According to Mizuho Bank, Circle’s USDC stablecoin has overtaken Tether’s USDT in terms of adjusted transaction volume since the start of 2026. The total stablecoin market has recovered to $311 billion amid an influx of retail capital.

Stablecoins could form the basis of a global payment system within the next 10–15 years, billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller has stated. According to him, such assets offer clear advantages over traditional banking infrastructure.