Bitcoin rises as Iran peace deal eases macro risks

Bitcoin has rallied back above 65k after the U.S. and Iran reached a peace agreement, easing one of the biggest macroeconomic risks weighing on crypto markets in recent months. 

President Trump and Iran's foreign minister have agreed to end the conflict in the Middle East, with the deal including the immediate removal of the U.S. naval blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday. 

Oil and treasury yields fall ahead of the FOMC meeting 

The initial market reaction has seen oil prices fall 4%, pushing crude to a three-month low. Lower energy prices are helping to ease inflation concerns and pull global bond yields lower, creating a more supportive backdrop for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. 

Elevated oil prices had raised fears that inflation would remain stubbornly high, forcing central banks to keep monetary policy restrictive. However, last week's softer-than-expected core CPI reading of 0.2% month-on-month, combined with the prospect of lower energy costs, has encouraged investors back into risk assets. 

Markets have subsequently reined in expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. The probability that rates remain unchanged through year-end has risen to 45%, up from just 27% a week ago. 

Attention now turns to Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh. While no change in interest rates is expected, investors will watch closely for any shift in the Fed's policy guidance. A removal of the easing bias could remind markets that inflation remains above target despite the recent improvement in sentiment. 

BTC ETFs record a fifth week of outflows 

While the peace agreement has removed an important macro headwind, the bigger challenge for Bitcoin remains institutional demand. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a fifth consecutive week of net outflows, although withdrawals slowed to around $350 million compared with more than $1 billion in each of the previous four weeks. Total outflows over the past five weeks now stand at almost $5.5 billion. 

The moderation in selling pressure is encouraging, but ETF flows would likely need to turn positive before Bitcoin can sustain a more meaningful recovery. Institutional demand was a key driver of BTC's rally earlier in the year, and its absence remains a significant obstacle.  

BTC technical analysis 

Bitcoin has extended its recovery from the 59.1k, 2026 low, to a two-week high of 66k. However, the bearish bias remains, with Bitcoin trading well below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, as well as below its previously broken rising channel.  

The MACD has turned bullish; however, the RSI remains below 50, and volume is low even as the price rises, suggesting downside momentum dominates.  

Should momentum pick up, further initial resistance can be seen at 74k, confluence of the lower band of the rising channel and the 50 SMA. A rise above here exposes the 200 SMA at 78k, followed by the 83k May high. 

On the downside, immediate support is at 65k, the April low break below here opens the door to 60k. Sellers need to take out this level to create a lower low and extend the bearish move.