Bitcoin holds key Elliott Wave support as bulls target $77,000 before possible $164,000-$337,000 cycle peak

Since our July 1 update, we have been Bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and Technical Analysis (TA). In our last update, we showed that we tracked a potential five waves higher, contingent on BTC staying above at least $62,474, our 3rd warning level for the Bulls.

Fast-forward four weeks and BTC held the $62,474 level, with its lowest close at $62,727 on August 1. Since then, it’s been staging a 3rd-of-a-3rd wave rally. See Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: short-term Elliott Wave count for BTC with several technical indicators

Thus, our previous calls for higher prices were correct. We continue to track the potential for five (gray) waves (i, ii, iii, iv, v) higher within the green W-3, ideally around $77,000, contingent on BTC staying above at least $65,418, which is our 3rd warning level for the Bulls. Because the 4th and 1st waves (gray W-iv and W-i) don’t overlap in an impulse, there is a >60% chance the current uptrend is over if that overlap occurs.

Given the ongoing bullish price action and as stated previously, we continue to view the 4-year cycle, which has worked over the last 12 years and projected a low between late November and late January, as invalidated. Bitcoin continues to move impulsively, so we continue to track a potential five-wave advance from the July 1 low. If it materializes, we can be certain that an important low has been struck and that the Fibonacci-based $164-337K region will be the next major target zone for the red W-v of the black W-5, etc. See Figure 2 below.

Figure 2: Long-term Elliott Wave count for Bitcoin