Bitcoin forecast: BTC steadies at $74K as Middle East developments remain in focus

Bitcoin is steadying around 74k after pulling back from a monthly high reached earlier this week, as investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and the ongoing disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. 

BTC rallied from a low of 70k at the start of the week to a monthly high of 76k yesterday, then eased back to $74k. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also surged, gaining around 8% on Monday before easing back to 2300. Momentum has stalled as investors wait for more concrete signs of de-escalation in Middle East. 

Mixed signals for markets 

The US Navy has confirmed that a full blockade of Iranian ports is now in place, increasing supply concerns and pushing oil prices higher from 3-week lows. At the same time, President Trump has suggested that the conflict could be nearing an end, stating that Iran is keen to reach a deal. This has helped limit further upside in oil prices and kept hopes of de-escalation alive. 

This leaves markets caught between two opposing forces: 

• Supply disruption and inflation risk (bearish for BTC).  
• Potential de-escalation and easing macro pressure (bullish for BTC).  

Falling yields, cooler PPI data lift stocks & crypto 

Treasury yields have declined over the past week as inflation concerns have eased slightly. This move was supported by softer-than-expected US PPI data, which rose 0.5% month-on-month in March, in line with February and below expectations of 1.2% MoM. 

Lower yields are important for Bitcoin. They signal easing financial conditions, improving liquidity, and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets — all of which are supportive for crypto and equities. 

US futures are stable today, following a strong recent run. The Nasdaq has now posted 10 consecutive winning sessions, gaining nearly 10% in April alone. Crypto markets have shown similar resilience, with Bitcoin up around 8.5% so far this month. 

This parallel move reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is currently trading as a macro-sensitive asset, closely tied to broader risk sentiment rather than purely crypto-specific drivers. With this in mind, US-Iran headlines remain key. 

Institutional demand adds support 

Institutional flows continue to provide support. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $411 million in net inflows on Tuesday, although this followed $291 million in net outflows on Monday — the largest daily outflow since early March. Net inflows for April now stand at approximately $741.9 million. 

Meanwhile, traditional finance continues to deepen its involvement in crypto. Goldman Sachs, once a vocal Bitcoin sceptic, has filed with the SEC for a Bitcoin premium income ETF — becoming the latest major bank to enter the space. This follows Morgan Stanley’s recent launch of its Bitcoin ETF last week, which has already attracted around $70 million in assets. These developments highlight growing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as a global asset class. 

BTC technical analysis 

Bitcoin trades within a rising channel dating back to early February. The price is attempting to break above a multi-month descending trendline from the October record high near $126K. However, the rally has encountered resistance around $76K — the March high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $126K high to $59.5K low. 

A sustained move above $76K would bring $80K, the round number into focus, followed by $85K (the 38.2% retracement level) and the 200 SMA at 88k. 

On the downside, initial support lies near $71K, with stronger support at $69.6K, the 50-day SMA. A break below $65K creates a lower low.