Bitcoin faces muted activity as BitMEX shutdown, FOMC uncertainty weigh on sentiment

Bitcoin eased below $64,000 on Tuesday as traders navigate exchange shutdowns and heightened uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy meeting, according to K33.

BitMEX shutdown highlights changing crypto market structure

In a report on Tuesday, K33 noted that BitMEX's decision to shut down marks the end of an important chapter for the crypto derivatives market. The exchange helped popularise perpetual swaps and established contract standards that major competitors, including Binance and Bybit, later adopted.

However, its influence has declined sharply in recent years. K33 noted that BitMEX's Bitcoin open interest once represented 40% of offshore BTC derivatives OI, but its share fell to just 0.6% by the first half of 2026.

“The shutdown is not a big surprise. After 2020, the exchange has seen dwindling relevance and collapsing volumes,” K33 wrote.

The research firm added that the exchange's decline accelerated after the US Department of Justice targeted the platform in 2020. Competition from newer derivatives venues, changing market structures and regulatory pressure further reduced its relevance.

"BitMEX is the highest-profile exchange to announce a wind down this summer because of its once-dominant position," K33 said.

BitMart and AscendEX have also announced shutdowns, suggesting broader pressure on offshore exchanges. While institutional competition and regulations, such as the EU's MiCA framework, have contributed to the challenges, K33 identified declining trading volumes and shrinking revenues as the main reasons for the closures.

FOMC uncertainty creates cautious backdrop for Bitcoin

K33's second major focus stems from the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's upcoming policy decision. Markets are pricing a 66.3% probability of unchanged rates and a 33.7% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting an unusually divided outlook.

The report suggests that the uncertainty partly reflects new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's reduced reliance on forward guidance, leaving markets with less clarity ahead of policy meetings.

Inflation data has also produced conflicting signals. While inflation has cooled after accelerating in April and May, K33 pointed to higher oil prices, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed tariff proposals from US President Donald Trump as risks that could keep it elevated.

The uncertainty could increase volatility around the FOMC decision, although K33 expects the impact on Bitcoin to be limited compared to previous periods of heightened policy uncertainty.

Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq has also fallen to 0.43, near the lower end of its five-month range. K33 attributed the weaker relationship to Bitcoin's continued consolidation near multi-year lows, while the Nasdaq has maintained strong momentum.

The broader market is already showing signs of caution, with the top crypto dropping nearly 4% over the past week. Average daily spot volume also declined to $2.1 billion, down 4% from the previous week.

K33 shared that July is now on track to record Bitcoin's lowest monthly average spot volume since November 2023.

BTC is trading at $63,642, down 2% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing.