Bitcoin eyes breakout above $80,000 as macro tailwinds build

Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest rally is primarily driven by improving macroeconomic conditions rather than crypto-specific factors, according to a Thursday report by CoinShares.

Bitcoin surges on positive macroeconomic backdrop

The firm stated that recent economic data have weakened the case for further US monetary tightening. Calmer inflation and weaker payroll data have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could move toward a less restrictive policy stance.

CoinShares noted that Bitcoin remains particularly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and real yields, making the shift in rate expectations supportive for the top crypto.

“Bitcoin's latest rally is a macro story, not a crypto one,” CoinShares said.

The firm pointed to the Treasury market as further evidence of the changing environment. Short-dated yields have declined, suggesting investors are no longer pricing in additional Fed rate hikes. However, longer-dated yields have continued to rise, reflecting growing concerns about the US fiscal position.

Beyond the macroeconomic backdrop, CoinShares noted that Bitcoin positioning has also improved, with whales shifting from selling toward accumulation.

However, the firm cautioned that accumulation has not yet reached levels that would indicate an immediate and sustained breakout.

“This shift has helped underpin prices and supported Bitcoin's move convincingly above its 200 day moving average, a level historically associated with stronger rallies once overcome,” CoinShares wrote.

CoinShares expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound for now, identifying $80,000 as key resistance. A decisive move above that level could require clearer Fed confirmation that the risk of further tightening has diminished, the report stated.

Bitcoin leads institutional demand as year-to-date flows flip positive

With BTC trading near $80,000, institutional demand is showing signs of recovery. CoinShares noted that digital asset investment products have already attracted $2.2 billion in inflows this week, marking their largest weekly inflow of the year.

Bitcoin-focused products accounted for $1.6 billion of those inflows, pushing year-to-date flows back into positive territory following an extended period of weaker demand.

The firm added that US regulatory developments, including progress on the CLARITY Act, could have a greater impact on Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) and the broader altcoin market than on Bitcoin.

The report highlighted the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium as a possible test for the market's next directional move. CoinShares said markets will watch signals on the future direction of monetary policy, including comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Bitcoin is trading at $78,580, up 8% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing on Friday.