Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis: Forecasting the path

In this technical article we’re going to look at the Elliott Wave charts of  Bitcoin (BTCUSD)   published in members area of the website. As our members know, we have been calling for the decline in BTCUSD since last year. The crypto market has continued to trade lower as expected. The main target area has not been reached yet, and we believe further downside may be seen in the coming days.
In this discussion, we will break down the Elliott Wave forecast and present the target zone.

BTC/USD Elliott Wave one-hour  chart 06.05.2026

The current view suggests Bitcoin is developing impulsive bearish sequences, with wave ((v)) of wave 3 (red) nearing completion.
As our members know, the typical target area for wave ((v)) is projected using the 1.236–1.618 inverse Fibonacci extension of wave ((iv)). In this case, that zone comes in at 60,555–55,992. From this area, we expect a corrective three-wave bounce before the downside trend resumes.

BTC/USD Elliott Wave one-hour chart 06.10.2026

Bitcoin found buyers in the 60,555–55,992 area and made a three-wave bounce as expected. The overall view remains unchanged, with only a minor adjustment in wave counting.

At this stage, we consider wave ((iv)) completed at 64,200. While price remains below that high, we expect further downside within wave ((v)).
We will use the same approach to project the wave ((v)) target zone, based on the 1.236–1.618 inverse Fibonacci extension of wave ((iv)), which comes in at 58,020–56,080.

Important note: Our analysis is not based on Elliott Wave in isolation. We perform detailed higher-time-frame cycle analysis, which shows an incomplete market structure. This is one of the key drivers of price action, along with correlation analysis and broader market context.