Bitcoin edges lower for a 4th day, capped by the 50-week MA

Market overview

The crypto market continues to trade within a narrow range while awaiting fresh signals on the trend's direction. However, at $2.66T, the market capitalisation remains above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, which stand at $2.39T and $2.38T respectively, signalling a bullish ‘golden cross’, reinforced by the fact that the price is trading above this crossover. That said, historically, this does not necessarily mean an immediate rally. On the contrary, profit-taking has been evident in the market for the second consecutive day. We attribute this to the market’s cautious reaction ahead of the inflation figures and the Fed’s decision in the coming days, as well as rather worrying signals from the debt markets of developed countries, led by the US.

Bitcoin has returned to the vicinity of its recent lows, trading just below $78K after recording three consecutive red daily candles and opening Thursday lower. The week is underway, but we may be seeing resistance at the 50-week moving average, which has halted the rally. It acted as support from August 2024 to October 2025, and a breach below it was followed by a 21% decline over two weeks and a 43% drop over 12 weeks. Nevertheless, the base case scenario appears to be that the price will fluctuate near this level for some time yet before resuming its upward trend, as was the case in April–May 2019 and May–July 2020. 

News background

ARK Invest intends to hold bitcoins for decades, as it views BTC as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, said the investment firm’s CEO, Cathie Wood. According to her, bitcoin is increasingly correlating with gold against a backdrop of concerns over the devaluation of fiat currencies and rising global government debt.

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has reached a record high since records began in 2017, against a backdrop of growing risks of the dollar’s depreciation, Bitwise notes. Many experts believe that in the next growth cycle, Bitcoin could outpace gold in the race to become the most sought-after scarce asset.

Ethereum remains the best-performing macro asset of the quarter, outperforming the S&P 500. Since July, the top three best-performing assets have been ETH, BTC and SOL, and this outperformance relative to other assets may encourage institutional investors to increase their investments in cryptocurrencies, said Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine.

Summary: Bitcoin is pulling back from the 50-week MA, the crypto market is awaiting signals from the Fed and inflation data, while the golden cross supports a bullish medium-term scenario.