Bitcoin edges above $64K as easing sell pressure, improving ETF flows support recovery

Bitcoin (BTC) began July on stronger footing after rebounding above $64,000 following improving derivatives positioning and signs of market stabilization.

QCP analysts noted that Bitcoin's early-July rebound aligns with long-term seasonal trends. Historically, July has been one of Bitcoin's strongest months, averaging gains of about 7.5%.

The firm stated that lower trading activity over the US Independence Day holiday helped preserve the positive momentum generated by last week's softer-than-expected US labor market data.

QCP noted that Bitcoin's recovery from the support near $58,000 has been accompanied by easing derivatives market stress. Implied volatility has continued to drift lower, while near-dated put skew has moderated after reaching elevated levels during the recent sell-off.

The firm also highlighted notable demand for end-of-July $70,000 call options, suggesting that some traders are positioning for a continuation of Bitcoin's historically strong seasonal performance.

QCP cautioned that not all investors have turned bullish. The firm highlighted continued demand for year-end $58,000 put options as some market participants compare the current recovery to Bitcoin's 2022 price action, when the asset briefly recovered before resuming its broader decline.

Bitcoin could be seeing emerging structural stabilization

Despite the cautious options data, Glassnode stated that Bitcoin is beginning to exhibit signs of structural stabilization as aggressive distribution gives way to a more balanced market environment.

“The Bitcoin market is currently exhibiting signs of structural stabilization, characterized by a transition from aggressive distribution toward a state of equilibrium,” the firm wrote.

The firm noted that price momentum has recovered alongside a meaningful reduction in net selling pressure within spot markets.

Spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) improved from -$241.5 million to -$12.2 million, indicating that aggressive sellers have largely stepped back. At the same time, Bitcoin's price momentum nearly doubled from 24.6 to 48.6, reflecting a strong recovery from recent oversold conditions.

Institutional positioning improves amid ETF inflows

Institutional positioning has also improved. Weekly US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows slowed substantially, falling from approximately $2 billion to $700 million, while ETF investors have returned to aggregate profitability.

Glassnode shared that the combination suggests institutional selling pressure is beginning to fade, even as ETF trading volumes remain subdued during the current consolidation phase.

“This moderation in capital withdrawal suggests a potential cooling of institutional divestment trends within regulated investment vehicles,” Glassnode stated.

At the same time, long-term holders remain firmly in control of Bitcoin's supply, with the short-term holder-to-long-term holder ratio remaining below historical averages, underscoring continued conviction among mature investors.

Meanwhile, Bitunix analysts argued that broader macro liquidity remains the dominant force shaping crypto prices.

The firm said investors are increasingly paying less attention to geopolitical developments and focusing instead on capital allocation and monetary conditions. Although easing energy risks and improving diplomatic prospects have reduced some macro uncertainty, fresh capital has yet to rotate meaningfully into digital assets.

Instead, Bitunix observed that global investment continues flowing toward Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure, with major technology companies expanding semiconductor and AI-related spending.

Bitcoin is trading at $64,010, up 0.7% over the past 24 hours at the time of writing.