Bitcoin climbs to two-week high as softer US data lifts risk appetite

Bitcoin climbed to a two-week high above 63k, supported by improving risk sentiment and softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data, which prompted investors to scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. 

The world's largest cryptocurrency is little changed over the past 24 hours but has gained around 5% over the past week. Major altcoins have also strengthened, with Ethereum broadly unchanged on the day but up around 12% over the past seven days. 

Weaker US jobs report cools Fed rate hike expectations 

Market sentiment improved after last week's weaker-than-expected June non-farm payroll report reinforced the view that the U.S. labour market may not be as strong as previously thought. As a result, investors pared back expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening, easing pressure on Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar while improving the backdrop for liquidity-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies. 

Investors also welcomed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who acknowledged that inflation has continued to moderate while reiterating that future policy decisions will remain data dependent. Markets interpreted the remarks as reducing the urgency for further tightening rather than signalling a significant shift in policy, helping to support risk assets. 

Attention now turns to today's ISM Services PMI report, which is expected to show activity in the largest sector of the U.S. economy remained resilient at 54, only slightly below May's 54.5 reading. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction. Particular focus will be on the Prices Paid component. A softer-than-expected reading, following last week's weaker manufacturing prices data, would reinforce the view that inflation pressures are easing and could further reduce expectations of additional Fed tightening, providing another potential tailwind for Bitcoin. 

ETF flows show tentative signs of improvement 

Institutional demand has also shown early signs of stabilising, although it remains too soon to call a turning point. 

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million of net inflows on Thursday, ending several weeks of persistent selling. However, ETFs still posted $526.6 million of net outflows across the week. 

June was a particularly tough month, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $4.5 billion in net outflows, the largest monthly outflow on record. The heavy selling coincided with Bitcoin's 20% decline across the month as markets positioned for tighter financial conditions and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook. 

While the return of inflows is encouraging, Bitcoin will need a sustained improvement in institutional demand alongside a more supportive macro backdrop before a more durable recovery can develop. 

Attention later this week will also turn to the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting, which could provide further insight into policymakers' thinking on inflation and interest rates as traders assess whether Bitcoin can establish above the 63k level. 

Bitcoin technical analysis 

Bitcoin has recovered from the 2026 low of 57.7K, climbing above the 20 SMA to around 63K, improving the near-term outlook. However, the price remains below the 50 and 200-day SMAs, leaving the longer-term trend bearish. 

Buyers will need to extend the recovery above 67K, where the June high converges with the 50 SMA, to create a higher high and expose the 200 SMA at 74.6K. A break above this level would strengthen the bullish case further. 

Immediate support is seen at the 20 SMA, followed by the psychological 60K level. A break below 60K would expose 57.7K, the 2026 low. A move below this level would create a lower low, bringing 55K into focus, ahead of 50K, the August 2024 low.