Bitcoin: Can October deliver the BTC breakout?

Bitcoin is rising on Monday towards $86k, extending gains into a fourth straight week as the macro backdrop remains mixed. Elevated Treasury yields are offsetting the impact of falling Fed rate-hike expectations. 

Bitcoin gained almost 3.5% last week after the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, came in cooler than expected and non-farm payrolls were also softer than forecast. Just 29K jobs were added in September, significantly below the 90k estimate, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. 

The data has given the Federal Reserve some breathing space, with markets now pricing in just a 23% probability of a rate hike in October, down from more than 70% a week ago. Lower interest-rate expectations tend to support speculative risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. However, the market is still pricing in an 87% probability of at least one rate hike before the end of the year. 

US Treasury yields and Fed expectations 

While falling Fed-hike expectations helped to pull the 2-year Treasury yield lower, longer-dated Treasury yields remain elevated. The 10-year yield rose 9.5 basis points last week and holds above 5.2% after hitting 5.34%, its highest level since 2002. Elevated Treasury yields can weigh on demand for riskier assets such as Bitcoin. 

Against this backdrop, the bond market will remain in focus this week, with attention turning to ISM services PMI today and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Hawkish minutes from the September meeting, when the Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points and signaled the possibility of another hike before the end of the year, could limit Bitcoin's upside while lifting yields and the dollar higher. 

Bitcoin: October seasonality meets a key technical test 

Bitcoin remains just below the 2026 yearly open at around $87.5k, which could prove a key resistance level, while October seasonality may provide a tailwind. 

October has historically been a favourable month for Bitcoin. According to CryptoQuant, the first three days of October are typically its weakest, averaging a 0.66% decline. However, 2026 has already held up better, gaining 1.4% over the first three days of the month. 

Source: CryptoQuant 

According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has risen by an average of 17% in October since 2013. If that seasonal pattern were repeated in 2026, it would put Bitcoin close to $100,000. However, there have also been three negative Octobers over the past 13 years, with an average decline of 13%. 

ETF inflows and whale accumulation 

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows will remain an important indicator of market sentiment this week. Sustained inflows could help Bitcoin absorb selling pressure from elevated yields and profit-taking, while a reversal into sustained outflows would suggest institutional demand is weakening. 

Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.65 billion of net inflows in September. Weekly flows at the start of October have remained positive. Persistent ETF demand could help BTC rise higher. 

Whale accumulation is providing another bullish signal. Data from CryptoQuant published on October 2 showed Bitcoin whale holdings increasing by 75,000 BTC over the previous 30 days. Persistent accumulation by large holders could provide important support, especially if macro conditions remain challenging. 

Bitcoin forecast – Technical analysis 

BTC/USDT trades above its 50 and 200 EMAs, keeping the medium-term outlook constructive. The price is consolidating in a holding pattern, capped by $87,500 on the upside and $82,500 on the downside. 

Buyers will look to break above $87,500 to extend the recovery towards $90,000. A sustained move above $90,000 would bring $95,000 into focus. 

On the downside, sellers would need to break below $82,500 to shift momentum lower, opening the door towards the 50 EMA at $79,200, followed by the 200 EMA at $75,000. 

The key question for Bitcoin this week is whether falling Fed rate-hike expectations and continued ETF demand can outweigh elevated long-term Treasury yields. A break above $87,000 would strengthen the bullish case, while a failure to clear resistance could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to renewed profit-taking.