Bitcoin breaks the channel, Ethereum fails to reclaim support

Market overview

The crypto market has fallen 1.8% over the past 24 hours, to $2.16T, continuing its downward trend after a rebound in the first half of the month. Market capitalisation has once again returned to its 200-week moving average, around which it has been fluctuating for the third consecutive week. We should be prepared for a prolonged period of trading near or below this line, as was the case from June 2022 to October 2023, when periods below it lasted between 4 and 18 weeks. Among the most liquid coins, only three have gained over the past day: The Graph (+1.8%), Aave (+0.3%) and Tron (+0.1%). The worst performers on our list were Avalanche (-8.6%), Bitcoin Cash (-6%) and SushiSwap (-5%). 

The price of Bitcoin has broken out of its upward channel and has traded predominantly below $63K since late Thursday. The bulls still have some hope, as a formal break of the trend would require the price to settle below previous lows near $61.5K. Even in this scenario, the price decline could stall in the $59–60K range, which represents this year’s most critical support level. The significance of this area is reinforced by the fact that the 2021 highs and the 2024 consolidation zone were located near it.

Ethereum is struggling, having failed to return to the area above the long-term support line from which it has been bought back over the past four years. The rebound in the first half of the month was modest, failing to push the price above the February–March support zone. Earlier, ETHUSD was actively sold off after a failed attempt to climb above the 200-week MA. The subsequent rebound proved short-lived. Going forward, we will be monitoring price action near the support levels at $1.5K, $1.2K, and $1.0K, where the most recent bullish reversals have occurred.  

News background

Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics indicate that the bearish trend is continuing, according to Glassnode. BTC is trading 19% below the true market price, currently $77.2K. Spot liquidity has improved, but the market remains fragile.

The crypto industry is experiencing the most severe downturn in its history, yet even in this crisis, there are positive factors, according to blockchain company StarkWare. The outflow of capital from major companies’ cryptocurrency holdings could reset and cleanse the crypto market.

According to Arkham Intelligence, Bhutan has transferred 533 bitcoins, worth around $34.5 million, to the Binance cryptocurrency exchange. The balance of the kingdom’s publicly tracked wallets has fallen from a peak of 13,000 in October 2024 to 1,750 BTC.

Monero developers have warned miners about a vulnerability affecting rewards in the decentralised mining pool P2Pool. Attackers are already exploiting this flaw, so network participants need to update their software urgently.

Changpeng Zhao, co-founder of the Binance cryptocurrency exchange, has called on all countries worldwide to migrate stock markets to the blockchain and issue their own state-backed stablecoins pegged to fiat currencies. In his view, tokenisation has the potential to make stock markets more accessible to investors. 

Summary: The crypto market is back below its 200-week moving average: BTC is trading below $63K, ETH has failed to hold its support level, and on-chain metrics confirm the market’s fragility.