A pause, not a reversal, for crypto

Market overview

The crypto market has taken a breather, falling by 3% over the past 24 hours to $2.86T, following a 15% rally since mid-September and a nearly 40% rise from its mid-August lows. External factors, ranging from a strengthening US dollar to a spike in bond yields and a decline in share prices, triggered a wave of selling in risk assets, leading to active profit-taking in cryptocurrencies. The support zone, which had been in place from November 2025 to February 2026, has now become a resistance level. External factors prevented the cryptocurrency market from quickly returning to the consolidation zone around $3.0T–$3.25T. Among the 40 most liquid coins, there were sharp declines ranging from −0.3% (Tron) to −10.5% (Official Trump, Uniswap), while only Litecoin is 5.5% higher than it was a day ago.

Bitcoin fell below $84K on Wednesday, selling off alongside other risky assets. As with the overall market capitalisation, the leading cryptocurrency encountered resistance near a previously significant support level. However, BTC failed to complete the Fibonacci extension pattern to 161.8% of the impulse that began in mid-August in a single move. Despite the pullback, the ongoing, unfinished nature of the uptrend suggests it may be a temporary pause on the way up. However, it is worth remembering that in 2021, Bitcoin lost over 50% from its peak before reaching new highs. Similarly, today, a decline to $70K may be painful for short-term speculators, but it does not undermine the bullish outlook.

News background

Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have surged to levels last seen in early October last year ($1 billion), when BTC reached all-time highs of around $126K. Ethereum ETFs have also recorded their highest capital inflows since last October.

The inflows into ETFs coincided with increased buying directly on crypto exchanges: the rise is being driven by real purchases, but leveraged positions are also growing rapidly in their wake, according to Glassnode. Around two-thirds of Bitcoin’s supply is currently in profit, which increases the risk of profit-taking.

According to Santiment, fear of missing out (FOMO) has reached its highest level since 2024 as the leading cryptocurrency rose towards $87K. Such one-sided optimism often increases the likelihood of a local trend reversal.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described dollar-pegged stablecoins as one of the instruments underpinning the dollar’s global role. According to him, the dollar accounts for 89.2% of foreign exchange market transactions, and the vast majority of ‘stablecoins’ are pegged to the USD.