XAUUSD Analysis: Awaits Fed decision

Dukascopy Bank Team Dukascopy Bank SA

In result of the previous trading session, traders with bullish outlook pushed the pair simultaneously from larger descending and minor ascending channels. The surge was based on increasing tensions between the US and North Korea. However, near the weekly R2 at 1,294.86 it made a rebound, as markets started to worry about the upcoming Fed Meeting Minutes. Given the importance of this event, the pair is expected to move horizontally until 18:00 GMT. Fortunately for the gold, the southern side is protected by a combined support set up by the weekly R1 at 1,285.75 and the 55-hour SMA. If signals from the Fed will be hawkish, the rate most probably is going to fall to an intersection of the 100-, 200-hour SMAs and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1,278.90.

Author

Dukascopy Bank Team

Dukascopy Bank SA

Dukascopy Bank stands as an innovative Swiss online banking institution, with its headquarters situated in Geneva, Switzerland.

AUD/USD hits eight-month lows below 0.6850 amid bullish USD

AUD/USD stays defensive below 0.6850, hitting an eight-month low in the Asian session on Thursday as the possibility of a steeper Fed rate hike in December helps the US Dollar hold near its highest level since April 2025. Geopolitical uncertainty also supports the safe-haven buck, while the RBA’s cautious, on-hold stance limits the Aussie.

USD/JPY eases from near 160.00 amid looming intervention risks, BoJ hike bets

USD/JPY retreats slightly from an over two-month high as the recent surge back to the 160.00 psychological mark prompted verbal warnings from Japanese authorities and sparked fears of direct FX intervention. Moreover, data showed that Japan’s wholesale inflation picked up again in October, strengthening the case for a BoJ hike in December and lifting the Japanese Yen. However, a bullish US Dollar, bolstered by odds of a jumbo Fed rate hike in December, could cap the pair's downside.

Gold rebounds loses steam at $4,000 as hawkish Fed bets support USD

Gold's rebound falters at $4,000 in the Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar regains traction and sits at its highest level since April 2025, weighing on the commodity. Fed rate hike expectations and the possibility of a jumbo 50 bps rate increase favor USD bulls, keeping the non-yielding bullion capped at $4,000.

Why the US Dollar's rally isn't as strong as it looks

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is back at an 18-month high, but most of its climb since August is the Euro (EUR) falling. Against a wider group of trading partners, the Dollar has gained half as much, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised rates once this year. The US Dollar Index, which measures the Dollar against six other currencies, is trading near 103.

UK GDP is set to show that the economy continued growing in Q3

The highlight of the United Kingdom’s economic calendar this week will be the preliminary estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product, which the Office for National Statistics will release on Thursday. The market is bracing for 0.7% growth in the three months to September, following 0.5% growth in the second quarter of 2026, with the annual rate accelerating to 1.9%, from 1.4% in the previous month.

What the US CPI headline doesn’t tell you about inflation

Brent crude has fallen about a third since mid-October on hopes the Iran war is ending, but diesel, freight and fertiliser costs haven't followed. Those costs reach US consumer prices in stages through 2027 and could keep inflation high after gasoline gets cheaper.