Weekly technical outlook – Silver, USD/CHF, EUR/USD [Video]

Geopolitical risk – Silver 

Silver continues to consolidate between the 73.00 support zone and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 78.30, as investors remain reluctant to take aggressive positions amid the prolonged US-Iran conflict, now entering its 95th day. At the same time, ongoing exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon continue to underpin geopolitical uncertainty, limiting confidence in any sustainable de-escalation despite President Trump’s renewed calls for a pause in hostilities.

With geopolitical developments likely to dominate sentiment again this week, the white metal remains trapped in a neutral technical structure, lacking sufficient momentum to confirm a bullish breakout. A sustained close above the 78.30–80.00 resistance area would be required to strengthen upside momentum and expose the 87.00 region.

On the downside, traders are expected to closely monitor the 73.00 support floor. A decisive break below that level could accelerate downside pressure toward the critical 200-day SMA at 67.18.

US Nonfarm payrolls – USD/CHF 

Market attention now shifts to Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report, with consensus forecasts pointing to a moderation in labor market momentum. Payroll growth is expected to slow to 85k in May from 115k previously, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are also anticipated to ease to 3.4% y/y.

A softer-than-expected labor market report could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious on further tightening ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting later this month.

From a technical perspective, USDCHF has managed to stabilize above the 0.7800 region and maintain a sequence of higher lows since January. However, the 200-day SMA near 0.7900 continues to cap upside attempts, keeping the broader recovery structure fragile. A confirmed break above this barrier could pave the way toward the psychological 0.8000 handle.

Conversely, a move below 0.7760 would likely revive bearish pressures toward 0.7670, while lower the focus could shift back to January’s low near 0.7600.

Final Q1 GDP revision – EUR/USD 

The Eurozone calendar is relatively light this week, although the final estimate of Q1 GDP, producer prices, final S&P Global PMI figures, and retail sales data could still influence expectations for the European Central Bank’s policy trajectory following the latest flash CPI release. Markets continue to assess whether incoming data can justify at least two additional rate hikes before year-end.

At the same time, the euro remains vulnerable to geopolitical uncertainty and fragile regional growth dynamics. Although European policymakers reduced duties on US goods to maintain stable trade relations ahead of a challenging fiscal and geopolitical backdrop, investors remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.

Technically, EURUSD continues to trade below its key moving averages, with negative crossover signals reinforcing the bearish short-term bias. A sustained recovery above 1.1720-1.1750 would be needed to improve sentiment and reopen the path toward the 1.1825 resistance zone.

Failure to hold above the 1.1570-1.1590 support could trigger renewed selling pressure and expose the 1.1500 level in the near term.