Weekly technical outlook – GBP/USD, EUR/USD, Gold [Video]

Gold falls after hawkish Fed; US Core PCE could dictate the next move.
Dollar dominance drags EURUSD to three-month lows; Flash PMIs to gauge economic momentum.
GBP/USD steadies as leadership transition boosts stability expectations.

Christina Parthenidou XM

US PCE Price Index – Gold

The weekly US calendar features the US core PCE data for May on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Following a hawkish FOMC policy meeting that prioritized price stability over economic growth and revived expectations for at least one rate hike by the end of the year, investors will be watching for further evidence that could justify a shift back toward monetary tightening. This comes after the temporary US-Iran peace deal removed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The data is expected to show a faster annual increase of 4.0% y/y, up from 3.8% previously, while the core measure, which strips out volatile components, is forecast to edge higher to 3.4% y/y from 3.3%.

Gold could face additional pressure if the figures support the hawkish narrative, unless it reclaims its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) at 4,274 and then breaks above the short-term descending trendline near the 20-day SMA at 4,330, which pushed the precious metal back into negative territory last week. In the meantime, the price seems to be aiming for a positive start to the week as the US enjoys a long weekend.

Flash S&P Global PMI – EUR/USD

Eurozone flash PMI data for June will receive special attention on Tuesday after the final Q1 GDP estimate indicated a mild 0.2% contraction. Business sentiment has remained in contraction territory since April, weighed down by weakness in the services sector.

While the PMI readings could remain below the growth threshold, analysts expect a slight improvement, with the services PMI forecast to rise to 48.5 from 47.7 in May. A stronger-than-expected increase could ease concerns about a technical during the first half of 2026, helping EURUSD rebound from last week's three-month low of 1.1416.

The pair posted a bullish hammer candlestick pattern as technical indicators point to oversold conditions following its recent sharp decline from the 1.1600 area.

UK Prime Minister resigns – GBP/USD

The UK Prime Minister announced his resignation after his chief of staff stepped down on Monday, triggering a process that will see the country appoint its seventh leader in a decade following a difficult leadership period, particularly regarding Labour's fiscal plans.

Andy Burnham, Labor's former Greater Manchester Mayor, is the favorite to replace Starmer after winning a special election in north-west England last week, paving the way for his return to Parliament.

Another chapter of political uncertainty may be nearing its end, though pound bulls are not fully convinced yet, as questions remain over the new leader's fiscal and defense agenda. GBPUSD edged slightly higher following the surprise headlines, holding a footing above the 1.3200 level. From a technical perspective, the bulls need to push above 1.3250 to initiate a meaningful recovery phase.

Meanwhile, the flash S&P Global PMI data for June will be closely watched on Tuesday, as a rebound in services-sector sentiment back into growth territory could provide some relief after the disappointing Q1 GDP figures.

Author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined Trading Point in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics.

GBP/USD weakens below 1.3250 as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigns

The GBP/USD pair loses ground to near 1.3245 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Political uncertainty in the United Kingdom continues to weigh on the British Pound against the US Dollar. The preliminary readings of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index from both the US and the UK are due later on Tuesday.

Euro declines below 1.1450 on US-Iran peace deal uncertainty

The EUR/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.1425. The US Dollar edges higher against the Euro amid risk-off sentiment and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary readings of the Purchasing Managers Index from Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States later on Tuesday.

Gold drops to nearly two-week low, seems vulnerable amid Fed hike bets, bullish USD

Gold adds to its Asian session losses, and drops to a nearly two-week low, around the $4,115 region in the last hour amid a bullish US Dollar. Despite positive signals from US-Iran peace talks, widespread skepticism remains toward a final deal. This helps the USD in preserving its recent strong gains to the highest level since May 2025.

Bitcoin holds steady as ETF outflows decline – DEXE and TIA extend gains

Bitcoin hovers above $64,000 at press time on Tuesday, holding steady after a roughly 4% drop last week. Data shows that institutional outflows are easing, suggesting broader market recovery potential, while DeXe and Celestia have emerged as frontrunners over the last 24 hours.

Are American consumers actually “resilient“?

A common label gets placed upon American buyers: resilient. Just last week, Marianne Lake, the CEO of Consumer and Community Banking — and a member of the JPMorganChase Operating Committee — affirmed this sentiment. While she did note some weariness regarding future inflation’s effect on consumers, she reiterated the common adjective: resilient.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.