Weekly economic & financial commentary

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

Summary

United States: On Hold

The FOMC held rates steady at its first meeting of 2026 and signaled it is in no rush to resume policy easing but was careful to preserve flexibility. To cap off a Fed‑heavy week, President Trump named Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, succeeding Powell in May.
Next week: ISM Manufacturing & Services (Mon. & Wed.), Employment (Fri.)

International: Global Central Banks Hold Steady as EMs Signal Easing Ahead

Central banks across both G10 and emerging markets met this week, with most opting to keep policy rates unchanged. Canada, Sweden, Brazil and Chile all held rates steady. Beyond central bank decisions, the Eurozone's solid Q4 GDP growth bolstered the case for the ECB to keep policy rates unchanged next week.
Next week: Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate (Tue.), Bank of England Bank Rate (Thu.), Banxico Policy Rate (Thu.)

Topic of the Week: Government Shutdown Redux

Heading into this weekend, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown is almost all but certain. Even as the Senate and Trump administration reached a new détente Thursday evening, a shutdown for at least this weekend looks increasingly likely.

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Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

AUD/USD edges higher as hot CPI inflation and hawkish RBA lift rate hike bets

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7035 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar edges higher against the US Dollar as hotter Australian CPI inflation data has bolstered expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes.

USD/JPY meets support near 157.00

USD/JPY retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, revisiting the 157.00 region before attempting some recovery as investors continue to assess the latest BoJ meeting, where the central bank left rates unchanged, as widely anticipated.

Gold sinks to fresh yearly lows despite risk-off mood as Fed rate hike bets weigh

Gold slips to fresh year-to-date lows on Friday. The metal struggles despite a risk-off mood across markets, as expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes continue to dominate price action, leaving Gold on track to end the month in negative territory.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP bulls defend $1.20 as sell-side pressure triggers liquidations

Ripple (XRP) trades around $1.25 on Friday, rising from a short-term support level established at $1.20. This minor upward correction follows a sharp sell-off, triggered amid reports of a hack attack on the Binance exchange that impacted approximately $6.3 billion. The attack drove the broader crypto market on edge, as Binance suspended both deposits and withdrawals to contain the situation.

BoJ recap: A pause for now... but Japan has entered a new inflation phase

The Bank of Japan left its short-term policy rate unchanged at 1.25% but delivered a distinctly hawkish message on the risk of an inflation overshoot. The decision passed by 8-1, with board member Takata dissenting in favour of an increase to 1.5%, while Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed that the Bank would continue adjusting policy as needed.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.