Weekly economic & financial commentary

Summary

United States: On Hold

• The FOMC held rates steady at its first meeting of 2026 and signaled it is in no rush to resume policy easing but was careful to preserve flexibility. To cap off a Fed‑heavy week, President Trump named Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, succeeding Powell in May.
• Next week: ISM Manufacturing & Services (Mon. & Wed.), Employment (Fri.)

International: Global Central Banks Hold Steady as EMs Signal Easing Ahead

• Central banks across both G10 and emerging markets met this week, with most opting to keep policy rates unchanged. Canada, Sweden, Brazil and Chile all held rates steady. Beyond central bank decisions, the Eurozone's solid Q4 GDP growth bolstered the case for the ECB to keep policy rates unchanged next week.
• Next week: Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate (Tue.), Bank of England Bank Rate (Thu.), Banxico Policy Rate (Thu.)

Topic of the Week: Government Shutdown Redux

• Heading into this weekend, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown is almost all but certain. Even as the Senate and Trump administration reached a new détente Thursday evening, a shutdown for at least this weekend looks increasingly likely.

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