USD/JPY outlook: Bulls hold grip and eye key barriers at 160.00 zone

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

USD/JPY

USD/JPY keeps firm tone and heads towards Monday’s peak (158.89) after broader uptrend (from 152.26, Feb 12 low) was briefly interrupted by shallow pullback (158.89/157.27 on Mon-Tue) when rally was capped by upper 20-d Bollinger band and subsequent dip contained by rising 20DMA (near-term price action continues to channel higher between these two indicators).

Daily picture remains bullish (strong positive momentum / multiple ascending DMAs bull-crosses) and favor attack at 158.89, violation of which to open way towards key barriers at 159.45 (2026 peak, posted on Jan 14) and 160.00 (psychological).

Traders remain cautious as the pair approaches 160 zone where Japanese authorities may intervene to support weakening currency.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.75% in the policy meeting next week, but with growing bets for 25 basis points hike by the end of June and another one in early 2027 that may also provide headwinds to the pair’s action.

Initial support lays at 158.00 zone, followed by 157.39 (ascending 10DMA which tracks the action in nearly three weeks) and 156.20 (55DMA).

Res: 158. 89; 159.22; 159.45; 160.00.
Sup: 158.00; 157.39; 156.20; 155.71.

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

GBP/USD bounces off lows, back above 1.3200

After bottoming out near 1.3160, GBP/USD manages to regain a bit of shine and reclaim the 1.3200 mark and beyond at the end of the week. Stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data seem to be helping the British Pound limit its losses, while the chaotic UK political environment keeps the bulls at bay for now.

EUR/USD looks consolidative around 1.1460

EUR/USD stages a modest rebound after slipping to a three-month low below 1.1420 at the end of the week. That said, the pair now looks to consolidate humble gains just above 1.1460 despite growing uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations, which keeps the US Dollar’s downside contained.

Gold slips back to six-day lows, targets $4,100

Gold retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, eroding gains seen in the first half of the week and approaching the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Indeed, the precious metal continues to face headwinds from the Fed's hawkish stance and renewed uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations.

Breaking: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire deal violation

Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a warning to all vessels: "Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, your security will be jeopardized."

The Iran war didn't break the US economy, but what happens next?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.