USD/CAD broke its long-term support: Now that line will cap a rally

The U.S. Dollar against the Canadian Dollar is one of the more telling currency pairs to watch right now, particularly for anyone tracking North American trade dynamics and macro sentiment. USD/CAD is currently trading around 1.3919, and the structure on this daily chart has shifted in a way that has gotten some attention.

A multi-year ascending trendline that supported price all the way from the 2021 lows has been broken. That's the trendline I'm focused on.

That red ascending trendline was previous support. It held on multiple touches going back to late 2021 and guided price steadily higher through 2022, 2023, and into 2024. Once price broke below it, the trendline's role changed. That's how it works. What was support becomes resistance. Right now that broken trendline is sitting right above current price near the 1.41 area. Price has come back up to test it, and it's doing exactly what a flipped level should do. It is capping the rally. Nothing has been proven in either direction yet, but that rejection is worth noting.

Pull back more and there's a bigger picture element here. The yellow horizontal line at 1.46903 I’ve annotated has been resistance on three separate occasions: once around 2016, again near the pandemic spike in 2020, and most recently in early 2025. Three touches. Three straight rejections. The next touch of that level carries a high probability of finally breaking above it.

That's the nature of a level that keeps getting tested. Eventually, the sellers thin out. But we're not to those levels yet. Price first needs to work through the broken trendline overhead before 1.46903 becomes the conversation again.

For now, the near-term direction points lower. The broken trendline will act as resistance. Price is struggling to reclaim it on a closing basis. That's the level I'd be watching. Aggressive traders can treat any confirmed daily close back above the broken trendline as a potential shift in tone worth acting on. Conservative traders should wait for that reclaim to hold with second day confirmation.