Stronger export growth across CEE in 2Q26

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Today, Serbia and Slovakia are scheduled to release their current account balances for June.
In our latest Growth Navigator published yesterday, we see broadly solid growth across CEE, with upside risks in Serbia and Slovenia and downside risks in Slovakia and Romania.

Economic developments

We look today at the performance of exports of goods in 2Q26, one year after global trade was disrupted by the introduction of U.S. tariffs. In 2Q26, all CEE countries accelerated the annual growth of exports to the rest of the world compared with 1Q26. The strongest export growth was recorded in Croatia and Hungary, where exports posted double-digit increases, followed by Slovenia, where export growth dynamics improved considerably. Slovenian exports outside the EU rebounded from a 43% y/y contraction in 1Q26 to 12% y/y growth in 2Q26, with base effects largely explaining this substantial turnaround. The favorable statistical effect stemmed from the fact that exports outside the EU were boosted by front-loading and pre-stocking in 1Q25, while exports in 2Q25 and afterwards were adversely affected by the introduction of U.S. tariffs. Export growth to EU partners, which account for the dominant share of total exports, improved across all CEE countries except Romania. Despite the favorable export dynamics, the trade balance improved only in Croatia, Hungary, and Slovenia in 2Q26 compared with 2Q25. At the same time, Czechia, Hungary, and Slovakia continued to post trade surpluses in 2Q26.

Market movements

CEE currencies weakened and CEE bond yields edged higher yesterday in response to the sell-off in global fixed-income markets. The German 10Y Bund yield rose to 3.25%, a 15-year high, while the US 30Y Treasury yield jumped to 5.33%, its highest level since 2007. Czech and Polish 10Y government bond yields closed at 3.92% and 4.92%, respectively, only around 10bp below their highs for this year. Among CEE currencies, the Hungarian forint was the most sensitive to the deterioration in global fixed-income sentiment, weakening above 365 against the euro, or by 0.6% d/d. At the end of this week, Polish government ministers are expected to start discussions on next year's budget ahead of the official government meeting scheduled for next week.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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