Spending picked up in Q3 despite September dip

From this edition onwards, the Spending Monitor includes mobile transactions, with the revision also applied historically. The added transactions raise the level of total spending (SA) in Q2 by 4% compared to previously published figures, while real spending growth has been revised slightly higher. Figures in this and future editions are therefore not directly comparable with figures in earlier publications. As the August edition was not published, this edition covers both August and September.

Adjusting for prices and seasonality, total spending increased 1.0% m/m in August before declining 0.6% m/m in September. Despite the September decline, real spending rose 1.5% q/q in Q3, while real spending excluding energy increased 1.7%. As such, the figures indicate that real spending growth has picked up to a moderate pace following more muted growth in the first part of the year. Nominal spending at gas stations rose 1.6% q/q in Q3, while real spending fell 3.1%. Households thus spent more but bought less fuel, continuing the pattern of rising nominal but declining real spending.

Real service spending was mixed in Q3. Real spending on hotels, restaurants, bars and tourist attractions declined compared to Q2, while categories such as cinemas, theatres, beauty salons and barbers recorded increases. Higher real spending on entertainment and personal care suggests that the decline was not broad-based across discretionary services.

Real retail spending declined slightly in September but increased 1.3% q/q in Q3. Growth was relatively broad-based, with smaller consumer goods such as clothing, shoes and cosmetics seeing stronger spending growth than larger consumer goods such as furniture and household appliances. The September figures point to some loss of momentum towards the end of Q3, but do not overturn the overall picture of higher real retail spending.

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