Serbia’s student list set for majority

On the radar

• There are no economic releases scheduled for today.

Economic developments

Early parliamentary elections were held in Serbia on Sunday, October 25. First, voter turnout was high, at approximately 68%, a level last seen in the early 1990s, following the breakup of Yugoslavia. Furthermore, results indicate that the Student List could secure 140 seats (around 53 % of the vote) in the 250-seat parliament, while the former ruling coalition could end up with 103 seats (around 39% of the vote). The Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians is projected to win three seats, while Muslim and Albanian minorities are expected to secure two seats each. This seat distribution is based on 95% of ballots counted, while the Republic Electoral Commission has 96 hours after Sunday's vote to publish the official results. The incumbent Serbian Progressive Party's candidate for prime minister, former Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, addressed his supporters on Sunday and conceded defeat in the elections. The student-led citizens' movement emerged following the November 2024 tragedy in Novi Sad, Serbia's second-largest city, when the concrete canopy of the city's railway station collapsed, claiming 16 lives. This devastating event sparked nearly two years of protests, blockades and calls for early elections. The election outcome represents a substantial political transition and is likely to result in a meaningful reshaping of Serbia's policy priorities over the coming months. The Student List campaigned on strengthening institutions, combating corruption and improving governance standards. However, alongside these priorities, the future administration will also need to address a range of economic, fiscal and geopolitical issues. Attention will additionally focus on the movement's ability to maintain internal cohesion, given the diversity of political views represented within its support base. The new administration will take office at a time when several strategic projects, including preparations for Expo 2027, as well as broader regional and international developments, continue to require sustained attention.

Market movements

As for global developments, Moody's decision on Friday to leave France at Aa3 was a surprise as markets were broadly expecting a downgrade. The euro fell against the dollar on Monday ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings (the US Fed and ECB) and with crude oil prices remaining elevated. Locally, S&P left the rating and the outlook unchanged for Slovakia. While the rating affirmation is a positive signal, Slovakia continues to face fiscal challenges, including persistently high deficits, rising public debt and subdued economic growth. In Romania, the budget deficit in the first nine months of 2026 stood at 3.81% of GDP on a cash basis, down from 5.31% in the same period last year. Budget revenues increased by 11.9% in the first nine months of the year, while expenditures rose by 5.5% compared to the same period last year. 10Y yields declined marginally in Romania, as opposed to other CEE countries where we saw increase of long-term interest rates. CEE currencies have been weakening at the beginning of the week. EURCZK is as high as 24.33, EURHUF moved toward 367 and EURPLN is at 4.39.

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