RBA holds – Nvidia ensures AI-spend continues

Asia market update: Treading water amid JP holiday and ahead of US July CPI on Wed; RBA holds; Nvidia ensures AI-spend continues.

General trend and developments

- Little news out of the Middle East to preoccupy markets and little appetite for bets during a Japanese market holiday and ahead of US July CPI on Wednesday. Kospi led Asia in mixed trading, with Samsung +5%.

- US Fed hawkish talk continued with Fed's Hammack saying now is the time for us to start acting and will probably need “some number” of rate hikes. UST 10-year yields back up to 4.71%.

Asia macro

-Australia's RBA held rates at 4.35%, as expected, with a unanimous vote, reiterating that policy is well placed to respond to developments. The central projection for underlying (trimmed mean) inflation is very similar to that in May. Aussie dollar and 3-year bond yields down very slightly post-decision.

-Prior to the RBA decision, there was divergence in Australia’s July NAB Business Confidence, still deeply negative at -6, showing that sentiment remains fragile even as actual Business Conditions ticked up slightly to +4. Current economic activity appears to be holding up despite the pessimistic outlook.

-Singapore’s Final Q2 GDP was healthy and saw Singapore's MTI more than double its 2026 growth forecast to now be in range 4.5-5.5%. Meanwhile Singapore’s MAS maintained its CPI forecast and stated that monetary policy stance remains appropriate.

-South Korea’s exports for first 10 days of August continued to rely on chips (+155% y/y) to drive exports, with chips comprising ~47% of the total value of exports for the period.

-Press reports that the US govt was persuaded to partake in the three-way intervention with Japan and Korea by BOJ’s hawkish signaling of a further tightening coming as early as September.

-China PBOC Open Market Operations (OMO) for its key 7-day reverse repos saw only the second zero volume injection since 2020, with the implication being that banks are currently have ample cash on hand.

-Leadership change speculation in New Zealand politics just ahead of the October General Election as the conservative ruling coalition’s senior party, the National Party’s PM Luxon, called for an urgent in-person Caucus meeting with all National MPs tomorrow morning amid rumored leadership challenges. [**Note: National has been suffering falling poll numbers at historically low levels of ~30%. Leading internal contenders who might potentially challenge include senior ministers Chris Bishop and Erica Stanford].

AI-related

-More circular funding for the never-ending AI build-out as Nvidia confirmed to target a massive $500B raise in third-party capital for AI infrastructure financing platforms with some of Wall St’s biggest names, including Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR.

- Meanwhile reports that Anthropic mentioned “competition from China” amid other factors during recent pre-IPO meetings with investors “to shore up confidence” among investors with the IPO said to be timed for Sept/Oct.

- Further Anthropic news with press reports it would strike a $9B computing deal with cryptocurrency miner Riot Platforms. RIOT +25% after the close on the news.

-Taiwan Semi kept up its relentless pace of record sales revenues for July (+68% y/y), with YTD sales also up nearly +36% y/y.

US debt offerings

- Nineteen issuers raised ~$27B in the US primary markets on a quiet Monday, ahead of Google’s settlement of $25B senior unsecured notes. Intel’s ‘multiple times oversubscribed’ equity offering at a 6.5% discount saw the offering upsized to $20B (from $15B), with the stock coming down -4% to ~$97/shr to be closer to the discount offering of ‘at least’ $95/shr.

- US equity FUTs +0.1% to +0.4% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time-zone)

- Tue Aug 11th: (Tue night, US July Existing Home Sales).

- Wed Aug 12th: KR July Unemployment Rate, IEA Monthly Report, (Wed night, OPEC Monthly Report, IN July CPI, US July CPI & Core CPI).

- Thu Aug 13th: JP July PPI, UK Q2 Prelim GDP & Jun Industrial Production & Jun Trade Balance, JP July Machine Tool Orders, CN July New Yuan Loans & Agg Finance & Money Supply, EU Jun Industrial Production, (Thu night, US July PPI & Core PPI).

- Fri Aug 14th: NZ July Business PMI, MY Q2 GDP, TW Q2 GDP, HK Q2 GDP, EU Prelim Q2 GDP & Jun Trade Balance, (Fri night, US July Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales, US Prelim Q3 Atlanta Fed GDPNow).

- Sat Aug 15th: KR July Trade Balance.

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon Aug 10th: Singapore.

- Tue Aug 11th: Japan.

- Wed Aug 12th: Thailand.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 opens +0.1% at 9,241.

-(AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leaves cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%; as expected.

-(AU) RBA-statement on monetary policy (SOMP).

-(AU) Australia July NAB Business Confidence: -6 v -6 prior.

-(AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 75.0 v 74.7 prior.

-(AU) Australia July Foreign Reserves (A$): 106.7B v 102.5B prior.

-(AU) Australia PM Albanese: Substantial progress in deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership between Vietnam and Australia.

-(NZ) Follow up: NZ PM Luxon: Disunity and division are a major distraction: Calling urgent in-person Caucus meeting tomorrow from 9 am to resolve the issue (comes amid leadership challenge speculation).

China/Hong Kong

- (HK) Hang Seng opens +0.2% at 25,998; (CN) Shanghai Composite opens -0.4% at 3,950.

-(CN) China MOFCOM: Beef imports from Brazil have hit 90% of their quota.

-(MX) Mexico Econ Min: Expresses concern regarding China's anti-dumping duties on Mexican pecans [overnight update].

-(CN) China PBoC on its 5-year plan for reform and development: Vows to maintain CNY currency (Yuan) stability in 2026-30 period.

-(HK) Hong Kong said to consider including trading firms in tax reforms; the article mentions firms including Jane Street and Citadel Securities - Press.

-AMKR Said to explore sale of stake in China unit, potential terms not disclosed - US financial press.

-1211.HK BYD said to have noted that battery supply is tight - US financial press.

-(CN) China moves to join Brazil WTO fight over Trump Administration’s forced labor tariffs – SCMP [overnight update].

-China issues 5-year plan for coal industry - press [overnight update].

-CN) China bypasses shipping chokepoints with ‘Ice Silk Road’ through the Arctic; Sea Legend will this week launch the first regular container shipping service through the Arctic - FT [overnight update].

-(CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7900 v 6.7884 prior.

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY0B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net drains CNY46.5B v drains CNY45B prior (only second zero volume injection since 2020).

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei closed for holiday.

-(JP) Reportedly BOJ Sept rate hike signal led US to recent intervention - press [overnight update].

-(JP) Japan Econ Min Kiuchi: No change in govt stance in respect for BOJ independence; central bank doing a good job on policy [overnight update].

Korea

-(KR) Kospi opens -0.9% at 6,240.

-(KR) South Korea Aug Exports 1-10 Days Y/Y: 45.3% v 53.9% prior; Imports Y/Y: 23.1% v 17.4% prior; Chip exports +155% y/y.

-(KR) South Korea President Lee: (South Korea) should also focus on non-chip and AI fields such as SMRs.

-(KR) South Korea to launch KRW5T chip fund for semi-related parts, materials and equipment; the measures are related to an initiative announced in Jun - US financial press (update).

Other Asia

-(SG) Singapore Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.1% prelim; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.7% prelim.

-(SG) Singapore Central Bank (MAS): Maintains 2026 CPI forecast; Monetary policy stance remains appropriate.

North America

-ANTHROPIC.IPO Execs said to be addressing "competition from China" amid other factors during co's pre-IPO meetings in effort to "shore up confidence" - WSJ.

-RIOT With Anthropic said to strike $9B computing deal - US financial press.

- NVDA Confirms partners with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR on AI infrastructure financing platforms; Targets over $500B of third-party capital [overnight update].

-NTC Said to target pricing stock offering at 'at least' $95/share [equates to a discount of approx 6.5%] ; the upsized equity offering said to draw >$100B in demand - US financial press.

-(US) President Trump: Great news for our Country! Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito has announced that he is staying for another Term. He is one of the Greatest of All Time. We are all lucky!

-(IR) US Senate Democrat Leader: Pres Trump has made ‘sweeping’ new demands on Iran, DHS – US Senate Floor proceedings.

-(VE) Venezuela interim leader Rodriguez meets with US officials including US Treasury, State Dept in Caracas, Venezuela - US financial press.

- The size of the equity offering was upsized to $20B from $15B prior.

-MSFT Plans to unveil its next-generation Maia 300 AI chip in September; To raise chip production next year; In discussions with TSMC to make chips - The Information [overnight update].

-(US) Fed's Hammack (voter, hawkish dissenter): Doesn't want to prejudge the number of hikes or where we end; Now is the time for us to start acting; We'll probably need some number of rate hikes [overnight update].

-(US) President Trump signs EO on vaccine recommendations to do with autism (as expected) [overnight update].

- Effective immediately, the administration is narrowing federal childhood-vaccine recommendations to 11 core vaccinations [overnight update].

-(CO) Colombia July CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 6.0% v 6.2%e [overnight update].

Europe

- (IE) Ireland July Construction PMI: 53.0 v 45.4 prior.

- (UK) July BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.5%e.

- UK Govt Environmental Agency: Nearly three-quarters of England is now in drought conditions.

- EURO ZONE AUG SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE: +0.9 V -0.5E [overnight update].

Middle East

-(IR) Reportedly Iran Pres Pezeshkian discussed sanctions unity during the meeting with Supreme Leader Khamenei - press.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 closed; ASX 200 +0.3%; Hang Seng -0.6%; Shanghai Composite +1%; Kospi +1.5%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.4%; DAX +0.1%; FTSE100 flat.

EUR 1.1538-0.1550; JPY 158.93-159.31; AUD 0.7039-0.7063; NZD 0.5876-0.5894.

Gold +0.2% at $4,400/oz; BTC -1.6% at $64,070; WTI Crude Oil +0.3% at $82.44/bbl; Copper +0.4% at $82.51/lbs.