Quiet May Day as groundwork being laid for Trump’s CN visit and Hormuz remains in holding pattern

Asia Market Update: Quiet May Day as groundwork being laid for Trump’s CN visit and Hormuz remains in holding pattern; US double-banger PMI Manufacturing tonight.

General trend and developments

-US equities again saw record highs, despite an early session dip, with Caterpillar +10%, beating by a wide margin and Apple +1.9% after-hours on earnings beat, buyback and strong iPhone and China sales.

-Japanese officials were polite enough to give the market a final, final warning before taking action on FX (with Yen >160). Fin Min Katayama’s first volley started a steep decline, accelerated by top FX Diplomat Mimura repeating the warning just 40 minutes later. JPY/USD promptly gained 5 Big Handles to 155. Officials later confirmed to Nikkei that intervention had taken place.

-Bank of Japan will continue with the same purchase amounts in May as April for its bond buying operations.

-Japanese shipper Mitsui O.S.K said it is assuming that the Hormuz passage will be normalized by July, 2026

-Tokyo April CPI was surprisingly soft given the Mid East energy crisis, with Core at the slowest pace in four years while Core-Core (ex-energy as well as ex-food) below 2% for first time since Feb 2025. US financial press cited fuel subsidies as having offset higher raw material costs.

- Japan Apr Final PMI Manufacturing at 55.1 was the highest figure for manufacturing in 12 years. Officials noted strength partly attributed to higher sales and manufacturers' own efforts to bolster their stock levels as the Mid East war disrupted supply chains and pushed prices higher, suggesting that the current boost to manufacturing could soon fade without more stable supply chain conditions.

-Similarly for Australia, Final PMI in April was supported by corporate stockpiling, raising questions as to sustainability.

-Taiwan’s incredible economic growth continued to outperform with Q1 advance GDP coming in at an emerging-economy pace of 13.7% (fastest since 1987). Due to the strong external demand driven by AI.

- New Zealand April Consumer Confidence clung just north of 80 for the lowest read in three years.

-Pres Trump ally Senator Steve Daines’ (R-MT) bipartisan delegation to China starts today, May 1st, ahead of Trump's expected US-China Summit in Beijing mid-May. Daines said to be aiming to address fentanyl precursors, trade, and economic issues as well as strengthen relations ahead of the Summit, which has not yet had dates officially confirmed by Beijing itself.

-Daine’s trip comes as USTR Greer suggested a US-China Board of Trade to China Vice Premier He Lifeng. Treas Sec Bessent also said that he spoke with his Chinese counterpart on Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing.

-Coles supermarket in Australia less cautious than Woolworth’s was yesterday, with broad growth in sales although echoed similar concerns on consumer sentiment.

-Tokyo Electron +7% on earnings and outlook.

-US April S&P and ISM Manufacturing figures to be release within 15 minutes of each other tonight.

- US equity FUTs +0.1% to +0.2% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)

-Thu Apr 30th: TW Q1 GDP, EU Apr Rate Decision & CPI, (Thu night, UK Apr Rate Decision, US Q1 GDP & Mar Core PCE).

-Fri May 1st: AU Q1 PPI & Apr S&P Mfg PMI, JP Apr Tokyo CPI & Apr S&P Mfg PMI, KR Apr Trade Balance, (Fri night, US Apr S&P & ISM Mfg PMI).

Holidays in Asia this week

-Mon Apr 27th: New Zealand, Vietnam.

-Wed Apr 29th: Japan.

-Thu Apr 30th: Vietnam.

-Fri May 1st: China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 opens +1.0% at 8,752.

-(AU) Australia Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: 51.3 v 51.0 prelim (confirms move back into expansion).

-(AU) Australia Q1 PPI Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.5% prior (weakest quarterly growth since March 2021).

-(NZ) New Zealand Apr ANZ Consumer Confidence: 80.3 v 91.3 prior (lowest in three years).

-(NZ) New Zealand Mar Building Permits M/M: -1.3% v +2.8% prior.

China/Hong Kong

-(CN) Shanghai Composite closed for 'Labor Day' holiday; (HK) Hang Seng closed for 'Labor Day' holiday.

-(CN) Huawei's chip sales said to 'surge' by 60% as Nvidia sales stall in China; Expects AI chip sales to hit ~$12B in 2026 (vs $7.5B y/y) - FT.

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 opens +0.2% at 59,379.

-(JP) Follow up: Japan source said to confirm that Japan intervened in market to prop up Yen overnight [Follows officials earlier confirming to Nikkei that intervention had taken place] - US financial press.

-(JP) Japan Apr Tokyo CPI Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.7%e; CPI (Ex-fresh food) Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.8%e (Core rises at slowest pace since Mar 2022).

-(JP) Japan top FX diplomat Mimura: Won't comment on intervention speculation; Japan's 'Golden Week' holiday season has just started, upcoming holidays are only a beginning.

-(JP) Japan Apr Final PMI Manufacturing: 55.1 v 54.9 prelim (confirms 4th month of expansion).

-(JP) Japan releases weekly flows data [period ended Apr 24th]: Foreign buying of Japan equities: ¥807.9B v ¥2.4T prior; Japan buying of foreign bonds: -¥887.7B v -¥8.8B prior.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi closed for 'Labor Day' holiday.

-(KR) South Korea Apr Trade Balance: $23.8B v $23.3Be.

Other Asia

-(ID) Indonesia Pres Prabowo: Indonesia to reduce take on drivers' commission imposed by ride-hailing companies to a cap of <10% (from current 20%).

North America

-(US) Q1 Advance GDP Annualized Q/Q: 2.0% v 2.3%e; Personal Consumption: 1.6% v 1.4%e [US Market Close].

-(US) Q1 Advance GDP Price Index: 3.6% v 3.9%e; Core PCE Price Index Q/Q: 4.3% v 4.1%e [US Market Close].

-(US) MAR PCE Price Index M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.5%e [US Market Close].

-(US) Initial Jobless Claims: 189K v 213Ke (lowest since Feb 2023); Continuing Claims: 1.785M v 1.82Me (lowest since Mar 2024) [US Market Close].

-(US) Pentagon said to be planning brief, targeted strikes on Iran’s infrastructure to counter its control of the Strait of Hormuz and push it back into nuclear negotiations; CENTCOM said to brief Pres Trump on new Iran military options on Thurs, Apr 30th; Another plan expected to be shared with Trump is focused on taking over part of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it to commercial shipping [US Market Close].

-(US) US admin said to be seeking international partners for a new “Maritime Freedom Construct” coalition to enable navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [US Market Close].

-(US) White House requests responses from US companies regarding AI-driven cyberattacks by Friday, 1st May, 2026 - Politico.

-(US) US Medicare portal database said to have exposed healthcare providers' social security numbers - WAPO.

-(US) Senior Trump Admin official: For War Power Resolution purposes, hostilities that began on Feb 28th, 2026, have 'terminated' [refers to Iran conflict) - financial press.

-(US) US considers February 28th action done for war power purposes - NBC.

-(US) Trump's mineral reserve plans to purchase rare earths from China - US financial press.

-(US) CENTCOM Chief of Staff and others briefed Trump for 45 minutes on Thursday 30th April, 2026 - post on X.

-(US) US USTR Greer: Suggested US-China Board of Trade to China Vice Premier He Lifeng today - post on X.

-(US) Mar Personal Income: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Personal Spending: 0.9% v 0.9%e [US Market Close].

-(US) Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI): 0.9% v 0.8%e [US Market Close].

-(MX) Mexico publishes resolution on fuel incentives from May 2nd-8th - US financial press.

-(MX) Mexico Mar Mexican Public Balance (MXN): -207.3B v -96.5B prior.

-(BR) Brazil Pres Lula: Next Monday, will announce a package of measures for household debt.

-(VE) Venezuela signs MOUs with Crossover Energy and Hunt Oil Co International; the agreements are expected to result in >$2.0B in investment.

Europe

-(EU) ECB leaves key rates UNCHANGED; As expected [US Market Close].

-(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Debated at length on a rate hike, but today's decision was unanimous; Moving away from baseline scenario, won't say if we are close to baseline or adverse scenario - Q&A [US Market Close].

-(EU) Euro Zone Apr Advance CPI Estimate Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2%e [US Market Close].

-(EU) Euro Zone Q1 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.9%e [US Market Close].

-(DE) Germany Mar Retail Sales M/M: -2.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.5%e [US Market Close].

-(DE) Germany Apr Unemployment Change: 20.0K v 4.3Ke; Jobless Claims Rate: 6.4% v 6.3%e [US Market Close].

-(DE) Germany Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.2%e; GDP NSA (unadj) Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.3%e [US Market Close].

-(IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 1.2% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.5%e [US Market Close].

-(IT) Italy Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.6%e [US Market Close].

-(IT) Italy Mar Unemployment Rate: 5.2% v 5.3%e [US Market Close].

-(FR) France Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.3%e [US Market Close].

-(FR) France Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 1.0% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.0%e (Annual Headline inflation moves back above target for 1st time in 21 months) [US Market Close].

-(ES) Spain Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7%e [US Market Close].

-(EU) Euro Zone Mar Unemployment Rate: % v 6.2%e [US Market Close].

-(EU) Euro Zone Apr Preliminary CPI M/M: 1.0% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0%e [US Market Close].

-(FR) France Mar Consumer Spending M/M: 0.7% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: +0.5% v -1.6% prior [US Market Close].

-(FR) France Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.2% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.3%e [US Market Close].

-(FR) France Mar PPI M/M: +2.0% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: +0.2% v -2.4% prior [US Market Close].

-(IT) Italy Apr Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.7% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.5%e [US Market Close].

-(NL) Netherlands Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.8% prior [US Market Close].

-(NL) Netherlands Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.9% v 1.5% prior.

-(UK) UK Apr Lloyds Business Barometer: 44 v 38e [US Market Close].

-(IE) Ireland Apr PMI Manufacturing: 54.9 v 53.7 prior (16th month of expansion).

-(UR) Ukraine Ambassador/Envoy: Ukraine seeks Japanese funding for air defense development.

-(RU) Russia currently fighting a fire at Tuapse Black Sea terminal - US financial press.

Middle East

-(IR) Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's message: There will be new management of Strait of Hormuz; Iran will dismantle US exploitation of Hormuz; US presence in the region is the main cause of insecurity; New chapter for the gulf and Strait of Hormuz taking shape - Iranian State Media [US Market Close].

-(IR) Iran Foreign Ministry: Its not realistic to expect quick results from talks with the US.

-(SA) OPEC+ said it would agree to oil output quota hikThe at upcoming meeting on Sunday (May 3rd) by 206K bpd minus the UAE share of 18K bpd [US Market Close].

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 +0.7%; ASX 200 +0.8%; Hang Seng -1.3%; Shanghai Composite +0.1%; Kospi flat;

Equity S&P500 Futures 0.2%; Nasdaq100 0.2%; DAX 1.6%; FTSE100 flat.

EUR 1.1738-1.1724; JPY 157.33-156.50; AUD 0.7206-0.7189; NZD 0.5909-0.5893.

Gold -0.2% at $4,615/oz; BTC +2.0% at $77,091, Crude Oil flat at $105.12/bbl; Copper -0.5% at $6.0000/lbs.