Oil rising, USD strong

lmportant news this week:

• Tue, 14th, 14:30 CET US Consumer Price Index.
• Wed, 15th, 14:30 CET US Core Producer Price Index.
• Wed, 15th, 15:45 CET CA BoC rate Statement.
• Wed, 15th, 16:00 CET US Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies Before Senate.
• Thu, 16th, 08:00 CET UK Gross Domestic Product.

Dollar tests major resistance as Oil surges on Middle East tensions

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is once again testing a major resistance zone, with price action suggesting a potential bullish breakout. Should the index move decisively higher, the US Dollar could strengthen further across the FX market. Both the Euro and the British Pound have already started to lose ground against the greenback, as investors increasingly position for a stronger dollar ahead of upcoming US economic data and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

The stronger Dollar is weighing on precious metals, with both Gold and Silver extending their recent pullback. Silver remains the weaker of the two metals and could see additional downside if the Dollar breakout materializes. Equity markets continue to trade sideways, reflecting a cautious mood among investors as they balance geopolitical risks against resilient economic data. Meanwhile, oil prices have surged above USD 85 per barrel, driven by renewed tensions surrounding Iran and the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Concerns over potential supply disruptions have pushed the geopolitical risk premium back into the energy market, even as diplomatic efforts officially continue.

Market talk

The US Dollar remains the dominant market driver. A confirmed breakout in the DXY could trigger renewed selling pressure across EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold, and Silver, while commodity-linked currencies may also come under pressure. At the same time, higher oil prices are adding inflation concerns back into the market, potentially complicating the outlook for central banks. Equity markets have remained surprisingly resilient so far, but prolonged strength in both the Dollar and oil could begin to weigh on risk sentiment. Traders will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East closely, as headlines surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are likely to remain a key source of volatility.

Tendencies in the markets

• Equities sideways, USD stronger, BTC weak, oil rising, Silver weak, Gold sideways.