|

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Dips below 0.5950, fresh weekly low as USD firms ahead of US PCE

  • NZD/USD attracts some sellers on Wednesday as the USD strengthens ahead of the PCE data.
  • A combination of factors might cap the USD and support the pair amid the RBNZ’s hawkish tilt.
  • The technical setup backs the case for the emergence of dip-buyers near the 0.5875 confluence.

The NZD/USD pair comes under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday and drops to a fresh weekly low, around the 0.5945 region during the early European session.

The US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index later today and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. This, in turn, drags the NZD/USD pair away from the early June high, touched last Friday.

However, diminishing odds for an immediate Fed rate hike move, along with easing inflation fears amid falling oil prices and positive developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, might cap the safe-haven huck. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish tilt should help limit losses for the NZD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices hold above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and an upward trendline, which now act as underlying demand and keep the near-term bias mildly positive. However, repeated failures to conquer the 0.6000 psychological mark warrant some caution for bullish traders.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 hints at consolidative rather than impulsive momentum. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below zero, suggesting that upside pressure is soft but still supported by the broader structural floor near the aforementioned confluence around 0.5875.

A convincing break below the said support would be needed to signal a deeper corrective slide. As long as NZD/USD holds above these levels on a closing basis, dips are likely to attract buyers. Bulls, however, might await sustained strength and acceptance above the 0.6000 mark before positioning for an extension of a two-month-old uptrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

NZD/USD 4-hour chart

Chart Analysis NZD/USD

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD0.06%0.10%-0.14%0.16%-0.23%0.46%0.23%
EUR-0.06%0.05%-0.17%0.12%-0.27%0.43%0.18%
GBP-0.10%-0.05%-0.24%0.06%-0.30%0.37%0.12%
JPY0.14%0.17%0.24%0.29%-0.09%0.61%0.35%
CAD-0.16%-0.12%-0.06%-0.29%-0.38%0.32%0.07%
AUD0.23%0.27%0.30%0.09%0.38%0.72%0.45%
NZD-0.46%-0.43%-0.37%-0.61%-0.32%-0.72%-0.25%
CHF-0.23%-0.18%-0.12%-0.35%-0.07%-0.45%0.25%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold adds to Thursday's gains as softer bond yields drag USD to over one-week low

Gold attracts buyers for the second straight day on Friday amid a broadly weaker US Dollar, though it remains confined in a two-week-old range. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, fell to a nearly two-week low as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Annual IMF and World Bank Group Meetings did little to alter the rate outlook.

Busy week for Ripple’s RLUSD: What changes for stablecoin holders?
Ripple’s RLUSD is gaining ground across institutional finance, with a major bank launching custody services, a new wallet integration making it easier for developers to build payments and agentic experiences on the network, and a brokerage platform planning to use the stablecoin for settlement.
Hot inflation, falling yields: A new test for global markets
Global markets are confronting a difficult combination: renewed inflation pressure, expensive capital and growing scrutiny of the investment supporting the AI boom. The most revealing development this week was the demand for government bonds even as US inflation accelerated. My assessment is that investors should treat this as a test of financing resilience.
Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff
Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.