|

Morning briefing: The US treasury yields continue to move up sharply

Most currencies are looking bullish against the US Dollar. Euro has moved above 1.16, Aussie and Pound could rise above 0.72 and 1.36 respectively while EURINR, Indian Rupee, Chinese Yuan can strengthen towards 111, 95.00 and 6.70 soon. USDJPY and EURJPY can rise in the near term towards 160 and 186 respectively.

The US Treasury Yields continue to move up sharply. The momentum seems to be strong. That can take it further higher from here. Outlook remains bullish. The German Yields have come into their key resistance zone. The price action in the next few days is going to be important. Failure to rise past their resistance zone can trigger a corrective fall. The 10Yr GoI is at a crucial resistance. It has to get a strong follow-through rise from here to negate our view of falling back. We will have to wait and see.

Dow remains weak but can continue to trade within the 53000-54000 range while above 53000. DAX has turned weaker amid rising Middle East tensions and can test 26000, with the 26000-26600 range likely to hold for some time. Nifty remains vulnerable below 24200 and could decline towards 23800-23600 unless it decisively breaks higher. Nikkei is holding near 64600 support, with a bounce towards 67000-68000 possible if it sustains above this level. Shanghai remains positive but is likely to stay within the 3850-4000 range while below 4000.

Brent and WTI have moved higher, while their earlier mentioned ranges of $80-$95 and $75-$90 respectively remain intact. Gold has fallen below $4500 but remains positive above $4400, with scope for a bounce towards $4600-$4700. Silver can recover towards $70 and higher while above $66. Copper remains range-bound between $6.50-$6.80 while below the key $6.80 resistance. Natural Gas is consolidating below $3.00, with a break above this level potentially opening the way towards $3.25-$3.50.


Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

More from Vikram Murarka
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD softens to near 1.3550 on geopolitical tensions, hawkish Fed bets

The GBP/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.3550 during the early Asian trading hours. The US Dollar edges higher against the British Pound amid ongoing Middle East tensions and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium.

EUR/USD struggles near 1.1600; looks to Eurozone HICP for some impetus

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 100-day SMA, near the 1.1575-1.1580 region, or a one-and-a-half-week low, and drifts lower during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1600 mark, down nearly 0.10% for the day, amid modest US Dollar strength as traders now look to the preliminary reading of the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).

Gold: Defending $4,400 is critical for buyers

Gold fades Monday’s rebound from eight-day lows, reverting toward $4,400 early Tuesday. US Dollar bounces sharply amid US-Iran tensions-led risk aversion and hawkish Fed bets. Gold attacks 21-day SMA near $4,400 after defending it on Monday; RSI still bullish.

Ripple, Cardano, and Dogecoin show weakness – Crucial EMAs in focus

Ripple, Cardano, and Dogecoin remain weak after double-digit losses last week, testing their crucial Exponential Moving Averages for immediate support. The technical outlook warns of further weakness in the prices of XRP, ADA, and DOGE as bullish momentum eases.

Fed Chair Warsh runs open-mouth operations at Jackson Hole but can he deliver?
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh moved markets on Friday with his Jackson Hole speech, even though the central bank has yet to do anything to move inflation. Clearly, Warsh wants to convey a message. He’s tough on inflation, and the Fed will “deliver price stability.”
Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.