Morning briefing: Euro can trade within 1.0700-1.0900

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index has surged past 105 despite the softer PPI data released yesterday. Dollar Index could trade within 104-105.50 and Euro if sustained above 1.07, then it can trade within 1.07-1.09; else it can get further dragged towards 1.065 before bottoming out. Aussie and Pound can remain ranged within 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.28-1.26 respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY can trade within 168-170 and 156-158 region respectively. Watch out for the BOJ meeting scheduled today to get further directional clarity for the near term. USDCNY looks bullish to 7.26/28 in the medium term while above 7.25. EURINR can trade within 89.50-91.25 region for some time. USDINR is likely to sustain trade within 83.60-83.30 region with upside capped at 83.60 for the near term.

The US Treasury yields continue to fall in line with our expectation. The yields can fall further to test their supports and then rise back eventually in the coming days. The German yields have dipped below their support. Failure to rise back from here can drag them further lower. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its range. It can now dip further to test the lower end of its range. The 5Yr GoI is at a key support. It has to bounce back from here immediately to avoid more fall.

Dow Jones trade lower and could fall towards 38000 while Dax has decline sharply but could hold above the support region of 18200/18100 and bounce back soon towards 18800/19000. Nifty needs to break above 23500 to turn further bullish else can fall back towards 23200/23000. Nikkei and Shanghai trade lower but could hold above supports of 38000 and 3000 respectively from where a bounce is expected.

Crude prices are sustaining well below their resistances and could be stable to bearish for the near term unless a sharp rise from the current level is seen. Metals and Natural gas remain bearish for the near term. Copper could rise on a decisive break above 4.60 else can also fall along with the precious metals.

---

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis