Markets migrated higher, mainly

USD: Sep '26 is Up at 101.430.  

Energies: Sep '26 Crude is Down at 81.01.

Financials: The Sep '26 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 7 ticks and trading at 110.16.

Indices: The Jun '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 56 ticks Lower and trading at 7421.25.

Gold: The Aug'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4027.80.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Down which is normal, and the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. Asia and Europe both traded Higher.  

Possible challenges to traders                                                                                           

• ADP Weekly Employment Change is out at 8:15 AM EST. Major.
• Goods Trade Balance is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.       
• Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m is out at 8:30 AM Est. Major.
• HPI m/m is out at 9 AM EST. Major.
• S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is out at 9 AM EST. Major.
•  CB Consumer Confidence is out at 10 AM EST. Major.
•  Richmond Manufacturing Index is out at 10 AM EST. Major.

 We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 9 AM EST with no real news items pending. The Dow dived Lower at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 9 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Sep '26. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Sep 26 - 7/27/26

Dow - Jun 2026- 7/27/26

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets an Upside bias and the Dow and S&P migrated Higher. The Dow gained 263 points on the session and the S&P about 2. Today our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday the markets were correlated to the Upside, and the markets didn't disappoint with the exception of the Nasdaq. Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?