Markets 'increasingly confident' of Iran de-escalation as USD collapses to pre-conflict levels

The bounce in the dollar on Monday proved short-lived, with markets increasingly confident that de-escalation is on the horizon. Despite the collapse in talks, several developments are keeping optimism alive. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is applying real economic pressure on Tehran, potentially forcing it back to the negotiating table, while comments from Trump and Iranian officials suggest both sides are keen to secure long-term peace.

We see the breakdown in talks as less a genuine dead end and more a calculated move in a high-stakes bargaining game. Both sides retain a strong incentive to strike a deal and rhetoric, however dramatic, should not be mistaken for a definitive rupture in diplomatic relations - a lesson that investors have learned the hard way.

Renewed optimism over the war has driven the US Dollar Index to its lowest level since the conflict began, underscoring just how quickly sentiment has shifted. This leaves room for a correction should we see any further bumps in the road, which is probably likely even if a deal materialises before the month is out.