India eases Silver imports as China's banks step back

Mint sales and Indian fund buying came to roughly 3.6 to 3.8 million ounces of silver in September on my count, and that is good news for silver: it is the buying the shortfall forecast needs to see arrive.

That buying came from the US and Perth mints and from Indian silver funds. It sits inside the forecast from Metals Focus and the Silver Institute rather than on top of it. So it confirms the forecast is arriving, rather than making the shortfall bigger. The picture is mildly positive for silver over the coming weeks, with one clear test. India has just made silver easier to import, ahead of its main buying festival in early November. China's banks, meanwhile, are stepping back from leveraged retail trading in silver. Heavy Indian buying over the festival season would make this more than a modest positive.

Interest rates have driven much of silver's October. Silver fell about 6% on October 14 after a hot US inflation report and has recovered part of that since. Kitco's late-afternoon reading on Wednesday put silver near $57.98 and gold near $4,141.01. That is a gold-silver ratio of about 71.4. At that reading silver was about 19.1% below its 2025 closing price, on MetalCharts' figures. The Federal Reserve meets next week, and markets still expect another rate rise by December. At Golden Meadow® I watch both sides: the rate-driven price in the short run, and the buying and supply behind the longer-term case.

Coin buyers came back, from a low base

People buying silver to hold provided the period's modest positive. The US Mint sold about 275,000 one-ounce silver Eagles in September, up from 210,000 in August, on a table compiled by SD Bullion. That is a rise of about 31%, but from a low base. The Mint sells only to authorised dealers, so the figure measures dealer orders rather than what investors finally bought.

The Perth Mint sold 605,408 ounces of silver in September, up 81% on the month. The mint attributes much of that to its first 2027 Lunar Year of the Goat coins, a seasonal launch. Mint sales rose in a month when the price fell, which fits buying into weakness. The data do not show whether end investors or dealers restocking did the buying.

The listed silver trusts tell a more cautious story. Units of the Sprott Physical Silver Trust, which holds physical bars, traded at a 5.97% discount to the value of their metal on September 30. In other words, the units sold for less than the silver behind them was worth. The gap narrowed to 3.93% by the October 13 close, then widened again. Sprott's own page put the discount at 5.40% on October 21. A trust trading below its metal value means investors are not paying up for silver exposure. The iShares Silver Trust was flat through October 12, at about 493.4 million ounces.

India: Funds up, imports down, rules easier

India is where the volume is. Money going into Indian silver funds rose 55% in September on industry data, to ₹1,974 crore. A crore is ten million rupees. I estimate the inflow at roughly 2.7 to 2.9 million ounces of metal, because the funds report rupees, not ounces.

Imports went the other way. India's commerce ministry put September silver imports at $665.08 million, down 49% on a year earlier. No tonnage has been published yet. On my rough conversion at September's range of prices, that is about 300 to 345 tonnes. That is well below August's roughly 482 tonnes, on Heraeus's figures. India's import duty rose to 15% in May, and new licensing rules have slowed shipments for months.

Those rules have just eased. On October 9 India's trade directorate issued a clarification for one silver code. Holders of a valid import licence need not also route their imports through the Indian bullion exchange, unless the licence says so. On October 13 it set up a faster application route for new licences across four silver codes, starting October 15. The route excludes doré, the unrefined bars a mine produces. Metal brought in that way must come through the bullion exchange or a nominated bank or agency, with full duty paid, and the licences last six months.

Together the two notices cut paperwork, not duty, and neither guarantees a quantity. How many approved licences remain unused is not published, so I do not put an ounce figure on them. The timing still matters. Dhanteras, the day India's main buying festival begins, falls on November 6, and Diwali on November 8. In early October, I looked at why India's silver demand did not disappear but was waiting for licences, and the two October notices are the first easing since.

Sources: SD Bullion, US Mint Eagle table | Perth Mint, September 2026 sales | Sprott Physical Silver Trust | iShares Silver Trust | 5paisa, AMFI September flows | DGFT notices via TaxGuru | SMM, post-holiday silver review, October 8 | World Silver Survey 2026, Metals Focus and the Silver Institute

China stepped back

China went the other way. After the Golden Week holiday in early October, Hong Kong bars traded $0.05 to $0.10 below London prices with no new offers. Shanghai spot deals traded close to the domestic futures price. Neither showed the higher local price that a rush to import would bring.

September's customs figures show some buying before the holiday. China imported 114.93 tonnes of refined silver in September, up 73.5% on August, according to Shanghai Metals Market. It still exported far more, at 309.77 tonnes, so China remained a large net exporter of refined silver.

Chinese banks are also pulling back. At least a dozen are ending retail leveraged trading in gold and silver, meaning trading with borrowed money. They are acting at the Shanghai Gold Exchange's prompting, the South China Morning Post reported on September 25. Some of that money is being steered into accumulation plans, which buy metal in regular instalments, so the net effect on physical demand is unclear.

What this means to Silver investors

The buying that showed up in September is the kind the shortfall forecast depends on. Metals Focus and the Silver Institute expect coin and bar demand to reach 257.6 million ounces this year. That is 39.9 million more than in 2025. Fund buying is a separate line in their forecast. September's coins and Indian fund buying sit inside those lines rather than adding to them, so they show the forecast arriving, not growing.

There are weak spots too. India imported far less silver in September than a year earlier. China is still exporting more refined silver than it imports. And the Sprott trust's discount has widened again. None of that breaks the forecast, but none of it adds to it either.

So the verdict is mildly positive, and the next few weeks decide how much it counts. India now has an easier route for imports just before its main buying season. If Indian buying picks up through Dhanteras and Diwali, the demand side of the silver case should get firmer. If it does not, September's coin buying stays a modest positive inside a forecast that was already counting on it.