Household income gains as saving trends diverge

On the radar

• Slovenia's September retail sales increased by 5.4% y/y.
• Slovakia's September domestic industrial PPI rose by 5.3% y/y.
• Hungary's September PPI and trade balance are scheduled for 08:30 CET today.
• Today, Croatia's September industrial production is due at 11:00 CET.

Economic developments

Today, we look at household income and saving developments across CEE, based on Eurostat’s quarterly sector accounts for 2Q26. Gross disposable income represents the resources available to households after taxes and social contributions, including wages, social benefits and property income, while the saving rate measures the share of income not spent on consumption. The latest figures point to differing developments across the region, particularly when comparing income growth with household saving behaviour. In Czechia, disposable income increased by 2.1% q/q, outpacing consumption growth of 1.3% q/q and lifting the saving rate by 0.6pp to 19.6%. Poland showed a similar development, with disposable income rising by 5.2% q/q and the saving rate increasing by 0.6pp to 10.1%. Poland recorded the strongest quarterly increase in disposable income among the EU member countries which have already published numbers for 2Q26. In Hungary, despite positive disposable income growth of 0.6% q/q, household consumption increased by 1.8% q/q, resulting in a 1.4pp decline in the saving rate to 19.3%. Nevertheless, Hungary's saving rate remained relatively elevated and close to that of Czechia. Meanwhile, the EU27 saving rate edged down by 0.3pp to 13.9%, alongside more moderate disposable income growth. As the figures are seasonally adjusted, these quarterly movements are not primarily driven by recurring seasonal patterns. At the EU level, household consumption continued to grow faster than disposable income, suggesting that consumption remained relatively resilient despite limited real income gains.

Market movements

The Fed kept its target rate unchanged at 3.75-4.00%, following September's hike, in a 10-2 vote. The hawkish stance could maintain upward pressure on US yields and the dollar, limiting room for CEE currencies to appreciate. In regional bond markets, Slovenia tapped the US market with a USD benchmark bond to diversify its funding sources and cover remaining 2026 financing needs. The bond was priced at CT10+65bp, yielding 5.63%, or 4.124% after swapping into euros, with demand reaching USD 825mn. Meanwhile, Slovakia's president signed the 2027 budget, targeting a deficit of 4.94% of GDP, up from an expected 4.37% in 2026. Further consolidation will be needed in subsequent years, while planned pension increases and potential energy subsidies could maintain pressure on public finances. In FX markets, CEE currencies were broadly stable yesterday, while the zloty weakened by 1.0% against the euro over the week.

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