Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks to Fed verdict for next big break amid stalled US-Iran talks
- Gold remains confined within a familiar range near $4,700, awaiting some clarity on stalled US-Iran talks.
- The US Dollar on a gradual recovery as markets turn cautious ahead of the Fed policy announcements on Wednesday.
- Gold eyes a range breakout, with bearish RSI and strong resistances lurking on the daily chart.
Gold is trading listlessly near the $4,700 level in Asian trading on Tuesday, maintaining its familiar range, as focus now shifts toward the two-day Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting starting later in the day.
Gold: All eyes on Fed, geopolitics
Gold lacks a clear directional impetus early Tuesday, with the upside attempts capped by renewed haven demand for the US Dollar (USD), as markets turn cautious amid stalled US-Iran peace talks and ahead of the Fed policy announcements.
US President Donald Trump discussed a new Iranian proposal on resolving the war with Tehran with his top national security aides on Monday, per Reuters.
However, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt noted: "I wouldn't say they're considering it. I would just say that there was a discussion this morning that I don't want to get ahead of, and you'll hear directly from the president, I'm sure, on this topic.”
Meanwhile, traders also remain sceptical ahead of key central bank monetary policy decisions this week, starting with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Tuesday. They are trying to assess the impact of the Middle East war on their inflation and interest rate outlooks.
The BoJ is widely expected to hold rates at 0.75%, deferring its rate hike plan due to the uncertainty fuelled by the Iran crisis. However, any surprises delivered by the BoJ could have a strong USD/JPY-driven ‘rub-off’ effect on the Greenback, eventually impacting the USD-sensitive Gold.
Meanwhile, the Fed is set to leave the benchmark rates unchanged, but the focus will be on the outgoing Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. The April Fed meeting seems likely to be Chair Powell's last meeting after Republican Senator Thom Tillis dropped his block on Kevin Warsh's confirmation process on Sunday.
Ahead of Wednesday’s Fed policy announcements, the Senate Banking Committee is also expected to advance Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair to the full Senate, with a vote now set for 1400 GMT.
In the meantime, Gold traders will closely monitor the broader market sentiment while awaiting some clarity on the US-Iran standoff concerning the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear program.
Additionally, a round of profit-taking in the bright metal cannot be ruled out as markets reposition before the Fed verdict.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,667.24, keeping a bearish tone as it slips below the short- and medium-term moving averages while holding above deeper structural supports. The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at about $4,725 and the 100-day SMA near $4,751 sit above spot as layered resistance, reinforced by a descending trend line coming in around $4,698. The 50-day SMA, rolling over near $4,857, adds to the topside cap, while the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 44 suggests weak, consolidative momentum.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the descending trend line around $4,698, followed by the 21-day SMA at $4,725 and the 100-day SMA near $4,751, with the 50-day SMA higher up at roughly $4,857 acting as a stronger barrier if a rebound extends. On the downside, initial support emerges at the nearer rising trend line around $4,590, ahead of a secondary ascending trend line close to $4,384, with the 200-day SMA down at about $4,264 providing a more strategic floor if selling pressure resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Read more.Next release: Wed Apr 29, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 3.75%
Previous: 3.75%
Source: Federal Reserve
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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Author
Dhwani Mehta
FXStreet
Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.
