Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eases from weekly tops on US Dollar renewed strength

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,487

The Middle East crisis remains the main market mover, investors cautiously optimistic.
United States JOLTS Job Openings came in better than anticipated in April.
XAU/USD trades with a soft tone and could extend its near-term slide.

Gold is down on Tuesday, trading around $4,490 after peaking at $4,541 earlier in the day. The US Dollar (USD) seesawed between limited gains and losses throughout the day, as market players are in wait-and-see mode ahead of first-tier data releases and clearer clues on whether the United States (US) and Iran will finally clinch a deal.

The Middle East crisis remains the main market mover, with markets hopeful but cautious about the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), a tentative deal aimed at extending the truce for 60 days to enable deeper efforts to end the war. The latest headlines on the matter indicate renewed tensions between Israel and Lebanon, interrupting US-Iran talks. US President Trump, however, denied talks had stalled in a post on Truth Social.

Other than that, the US published the Job Openings & Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report, which showed that the number of job openings surged to 7.618 million in April, y from the revised 6.887 million posted in March. The encouraging report helped the USD gain ground, although the latest USD advance had little to no fundamental background.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD trades with a bearish tone as the metal holds below a descending group of moving averages. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,513.54 caps the immediate recovery attempt, while the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs at $4,553.56 and $4,613.72, respectively, reinforce a broader downside bias. The same chart shows that the Momentum has weakened again, with the 14-period indicator back in negative territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator sliding toward the mid-40s, which suggests sellers retain control despite intermittent bounces.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD also trades with a bearish bias, holding above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which provides support at $4,416.68. Dynamic resistance is provided by the 20-day SMA at $4,580.39 and the 100-day SMA at $4,800.91. The RSI indicator, in the meantime, sits around 42, directionless, while the Momentum indicator heads nowhere below its midline, skewing the risk to the downside without confirming lower lows ahead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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