Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eases from weekly tops on US Dollar renewed strength

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,487

The Middle East crisis remains the main market mover, investors cautiously optimistic.
United States JOLTS Job Openings came in better than anticipated in April.
XAU/USD trades with a soft tone and could extend its near-term slide.

Gold is down on Tuesday, trading around $4,490 after peaking at $4,541 earlier in the day. The US Dollar (USD) seesawed between limited gains and losses throughout the day, as market players are in wait-and-see mode ahead of first-tier data releases and clearer clues on whether the United States (US) and Iran will finally clinch a deal.

The Middle East crisis remains the main market mover, with markets hopeful but cautious about the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), a tentative deal aimed at extending the truce for 60 days to enable deeper efforts to end the war. The latest headlines on the matter indicate renewed tensions between Israel and Lebanon, interrupting US-Iran talks. US President Trump, however, denied talks had stalled in a post on Truth Social.

Other than that, the US published the Job Openings & Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report, which showed that the number of job openings surged to 7.618 million in April, y from the revised 6.887 million posted in March. The encouraging report helped the USD gain ground, although the latest USD advance had little to no fundamental background.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD trades with a bearish tone as the metal holds below a descending group of moving averages. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,513.54 caps the immediate recovery attempt, while the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs at $4,553.56 and $4,613.72, respectively, reinforce a broader downside bias. The same chart shows that the Momentum has weakened again, with the 14-period indicator back in negative territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator sliding toward the mid-40s, which suggests sellers retain control despite intermittent bounces.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD also trades with a bearish bias, holding above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which provides support at $4,416.68. Dynamic resistance is provided by the 20-day SMA at $4,580.39 and the 100-day SMA at $4,800.91. The RSI indicator, in the meantime, sits around 42, directionless, while the Momentum indicator heads nowhere below its midline, skewing the risk to the downside without confirming lower lows ahead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD edges higher above 0.7050 as hot CPI lifts RBA rate hike odds

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7055 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar edges higher against the US Dollar as hotter inflation data bolsters expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes. The US September Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report will be in the spotlight later on Thursday.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 as USD stalls the post-FOMC corrective slide

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Thursday, climbing back above 158.00 as the US Dollar reverses part of the post-FOMC pullback from a two-week high. Bulls, however, await key US macro data – the Advance Q3 GDP and the PCE Price Index – before positioning for further gains. Focus will then shift to the crucial BoJ policy update on Friday amid firming expectations for a December rate hike.

Gold weakens below $4,050 amid renewed USD buying ahead of crucial US data

Gold slides back below $4,050 during the Asian session on Thursday, snapping a three-day winning streak. The US Dollar regains positive traction after Wednesday’s post-FOMC corrective slide as elevated energy prices keep December rate-hike bets firmly on the table. Moreover, geopolitical risks underpin the safe-haven buck, weighing on bullion as traders now look to crucial US data – the Advance Q3 GDP and the PCE Price Index.

Bitcoin volatility falls to 2023 lows, Glassnode says

Bitcoin climbed above $81,000 on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote. The decision came as the top crypto's realized volatility fell to levels last seen in the summer of 2023.

Fed's recap: A cautious hold with a clear warning on inflation

The Federal Reserve (Fed) held its policy rate steady at 3.75%-4.00%, but it wasn’t a unanimous decision. Among two officials who wanted a 25-basis-point hike were Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, while Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed would use the coming flow of information to decide whether further action is needed. The statement presented a resilient economy.

Anthropic pledged $270 billion to Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Here's who actually gets paid

Anthropic owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269.4 billion for computing power, even if it uses less. All three sell its models and handle its billing, and Amazon and Google own stakes and lend it money, so they get paid regardless of how the IPO goes. The Dario Amodei-led Anthropic filed its initial public offering (IPO) on Monday, seeking a listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.