Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD awaits Warsh's testimony, US-Iran peace talks for clear direction
- Gold struggles for a clear direction as markets turn cautiously optimistic, with the US and Iran set to resume peace talks.
- The US Dollar bounces amid profit-taking ahead of Fed Chair-nominee Warsh’s testimony and Tesla, Meta earnings report.
- Gold eyes a daily close above the falling wedge resistance near $4,810 amid bearish crossovers and neutral RSI.
Gold is struggling near $4,800 in Asia on Tuesday, snapping two consecutive days of gains.
The yellow metal has remained sideways for over a week now as markets eagerly await the second round of peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran for a fresh and clear directional impetus.
Gold awaits US-Iran peace talks
Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the plans, that Iran is sending a team to Islamabad, Pakistan, for talks. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that Vice President JD Vance is leaving later on Monday to resume negotiations, “either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.”
Despite hopes for a deal to be struck as the talks are set to resume later this week, markets trade with caution as the US naval blockade of the Iranian ports persists alongside risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets also remain wary about a potential breakdown of peace talks, as it happened earlier this month, especially with the two-week ceasefire expiring on Wednesday and Trump showing reluctance to extend it.
Additionally, traders refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the bullion, anticipating the testimony from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair-designate Kevin Warsh and earnings reports from American tech giants, Tesla, Meta, etc.
“Warsh's confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking panel is scheduled to begin at 1400 GMT on Tuesday, with his independence from the Trump White House expected to be a key focus,” per Reuters.
Warsh will say he is "committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent," according to his prepared remarks.
Beyond fundamentals, Gold’s technical setup on the daily chart also keeps investors on edge, as the bullion has been teasing a falling wedge breakout for the past week.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,807.54. The metal holds above a dense support band defined by the reclaimed downward trend-line break near $4,763, the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) around $4,728 and the 21-day SMA near $4,671, suggesting a constructive near-term bias as long as this area holds. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.17 is slightly positive and flat, hinting at steady rather than impulsive bullish momentum while price consolidates above the broader rising trend-line base.
On the downside, initial support is located in the $4,760–4,720 region, where the former descending resistance line, the 100-day SMA and the 21-day SMA cluster, followed by the rising trend-line zone around the mid-$4,500s and then the 200-day SMA near $4,230 if selling accelerates. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the upper boundary of the falling wedge near $4,81050-day SMA. A daily closing above that level is critical to confirm a bullish breakout, with the next resistance aligned the 50-day SMA around $4,890. A sustained move above this moving average would open the way for a more decisive recovery toward the recent highs, while failure to clear it would keep XAU/USD in a consolidation phase above its newly established support floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Fed Chair-designate Warsh testifies
Kevin Warsh (April 13, 1970) is an American financier and attorney who has been nominated by President Donald Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell. Warsh served as a member of the Fed Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and was significantly involved in the central bank's response to the financial crisis.
Read more.Next release: Tue Apr 21, 2026 14:00
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Source: Federal Reserve
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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Author
Dhwani Mehta
FXStreet
Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.
