Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD at a make-or-break level, awaits clarity on US-Iran peace talks

Gold is extending its range play below $4,800 early Friday, having failed to sustain above that level for the third consecutive day. Traders stay cautious, awaiting clarity on the next step in the US-Iran peace talks as the bullion heads for the fourth straight weekly gain.

Gold struggles for a clear directional impetus

With the US-Iran two-week ceasefire set to end on April 22, investors remain unnerved over the timing and the outcome of the next round of peace talks, leaving Gold price gyrating in a familiar range.

The upside attempts in Gold remain capped by the recent rebound in Oil prices as supply disruption concerns persist amid a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Surging Oil prices restoke inflationary concerns, calling for monetary policy tightening from major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) noted late Thursday, “USS Abraham Lincoln transits Arabian Sea as US enforces blockade of Iran’s ports with 12+ ships, 100+ aircraft, 10,000 troops; no vessels violating blockade so far.”

Additionally, a modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD from near six-week troughs also acts as a headwind for the USD-denominated Gold.

However, the downside in the bright metal remains cushioned by a 10-day truce announced between Israel and Lebanon, with investors staying hopeful for a near-term resolution to the war in the Middle East. The renewed market optimism curbs the Greenback’s demand as a safe-haven asset, supporting Gold.

Heading into the weekend, Gold awaits a fresh directional impetus, remaining at the mercy of the developments in the Mideast war front.

Additionally, the end-of-the-week flows could play out and drive Gold price movements amid a lack of clarity on the likely US-Iran peace talks and the durability of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement.

Gold’s technical setup on the daily chart also appears interesting, leaving all eyes on technicals alongside geopolitics.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,789.50. The metal is caught between medium-term support and overhead supply, holding above the 21-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at roughly $4,646 and $4,715 while still capped by the 50-day SMA at $4,897 and a descending resistance trend line coming in near $4,792. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 51 suggests neutral momentum with a mild positive bias, hinting at consolidation rather than a directional breakout while price hovers just under the trend resistance.

Meanwhile, a 21-day SMA and 100-day SMA Bear Cross confirmed on April 13, as well as the March 25 Bear Cross, continue to temper Gold's upside.

On the topside, immediate resistance is the descending trend line at about $4,792, and a daily close above it would expose the 50-day SMA at $4,897 as the next hurdle for bulls. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 100-day SMA near $4,715, with a broader rising trend-line area around the mid-$4,500s reinforcing underlying demand ahead of the 21-day SMA at approximately $4,646; only a sustained break below these layers would open the way toward the distant 200-day SMA support near $4,215.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)