Gold outlook: Bears pause at significant $4,000 support

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

Gold

Gold price ticks higher on Friday after repeated failure to register clear break of psychological $4000 support.

The metal is on track for the fourth consecutive weekly loss, pressured by stronger dollar on growing expectations that Fed will start raising interest rates, with the first action expected as early as September.

Thursday’s US PCE data (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) showed that inflation rose above 4% for the first time in three years, adding to growing bets for rate hike.

Bears face strong headwinds at $4000 zone which marks significant support (attacked for the first time since early November 2025), with oversold daily studies and anticipated partial profit-taking at the end of the week, expected to provide temporary support to the price.

Limited upticks are likely to mark positioning for fresh push lower, as long as fundamentals remain dollar favorable and daily techs firmly bearish.

Solid resistance at $4170 (falling 10DMA / 50% retracement of $4382/$3959 bear-leg) should ideally cap upticks and keep intact barriers at $4200 (round-figure) and $4220 (Fibo 61.8%).

Res: 4076; 4121; 4170; 4200.
Sup: 4000; 3959; 3886; 3800.

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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