Gold held inside of the previous week's [Video]

Gold

Gold held inside of the previous week's range all through last week.

So far this week, as I write this morning, Gold is actually unchanged on the Sunday night open as we trade around $4426, having dipped to 4423 on Monday afternoon.

Yesterday we held inside of Monday's range in a very quiet session ahead of the FOMC rate decision today, with a range of only $55.

Through yesterday we were seeing hourly ranges of only $15.

Unfortunately this is all as expected but we were right not to waste time on pointless trades.

This week’s key risk is not just the Fed decision—it’s the dot plot and Chair Warsh’s guidance. A hike plus signals of another move in December could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold, silver and equity valuations.

We are still trading exactly where we were 5 or 6 weeks ago, and as far back as October 2025, when we reached a peak of 4381, (and we are trading $55 below here today) so there is no longer term trend or pattern to guide us at this stage.

HOWEVER we are holding a 3 week bear trend.

It seems everybody's talking about a head and shoulders pattern in gold and I don't see it as relevant.

a head and shoulders pattern is only relevant after a sustained bull run and we certainly haven't seen that.

if retail traders are short expecting the head and shoulders pattern to complete, it could create a short squeeze and push gold higher when the rate decision is announced tomorrow.

this is not the basis for any trades but something I just wanted to note.

Gold held just below minor short term Fibonacci resistance at 4313/4318 & tested very minor trend line support at 4274/71, holding above this week's low at 4255/4253.

Over night we break above 4322 which could trigger further gains towards 4338 (hit already) and 4347, perhaps as far as stronger short term Fibonacci, short term trend line and 100 hour resistance 4356/4360.

A high for the morning (before the rate announcement) is certainly possible here but shorts need stop above 4365.

Just be aware that a break higher targets 4395/99. A break above 4405 can target 4420/4425.

For this morning we should have minor support at 4310/4306 but below 4300 can target 4284/81 before a test of this week's low at 4255/4253.

Further losses test very minor trend line & minor 61.8% Fibonacci support at 4242/4238.

Just be aware that a break below 4230 risks a slide to 4205/4200, perhaps as far as 4175/4165 (which I assume would be triggered by a more hawkish Fed statement).