Going Down The Debt Collapse Rabbit Hole

  • Currencies & metals rally on the day!

  • Wholesale Inflation falls in August? 

Good Day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Another day on the "wonder drug", and my foot feels soooooo much better this morning. Now it just feels like a small pebble is in my shoe when I walk, and not the sharp object that was there the other day! Well, I guess I should have not said anything but my beloved Cardinals played just like I said they would yesterday... Maybe I should book a flight to Vegas? HA! Jackson Browne greets me this morning with his song: For A Dancer... A strong lyric in this song goes like this: In the end there is one dance you'll do alone... 

Yesterday, saw the drifting toward higher levels for the currencies VS the dollar, turn to an all-out rally. This morning the European Central Bank (ECB) is meeting and they hold the key to any further gains of the euro and other currencies. But not all other currencies, for the Emerging Markets currencies are a horse of a different color, and have their own problems with the dollar that we've talked about before. No need to air the dirty laundry so to speak again... 

I have to say that, as you longtime dear Pfennig Readers know, I do a lot of reading each day, trying to not only learn more about trends, economics, etc. and one theme of articles that I've been seeing appear over and over again lately, is about the dollar. But wait! These aren't your run-of-the-mill articles, these are large financial institutions research groups, Central Bankers, economists, and really a representative from each major group, all singing from the same song sheet, that "the dollar looks tired, and has run its course for strength"... 

Now, all I need is for the "tech guys" to chime in, for me to know I'm on the right path here, and that the dollar is looking shaky... And if China and Russia have anything to do with it, and they will, trust me on this one folks, the dollar will cease being held in large amounts by Central Banks around the world to settle the terms of trade transactions... And this will put many dollars up for sale, while the respective domestic currency of the Central Bank selling dollars will be bought. 

Yesterday, I came across this article from the GATA folks, and well, this plays well in the sandbox with the previous paragraph... Check this out... 

Jean-Claude Juncker has vowed to turn the euro into a global reserve currency that could rival the dollar as part of the European Union's drive to reduce its financial dependence on the United States.

In his last "State of the Union" speech to members of the European Parliament in Strasbourg yesterday, the president of the European Commission said it was an "aberration" that the EU paid for more than 80 percent of its energy imports in U.S. dollars despite only 2 percent of imports coming from the U.S.

Most of the dollar-denominated imports are from Russia and the Gulf states.

"We will have to change that. The euro must become the active instrument of a new sovereign Europe," said Mr. Juncker, whose five-year tenure as commission president is due to end next year.” 

Now, this statement would have gone a long way, like an Albert Pujols home run off Brad Lidge (is that ball still going?) if ECB President, Mario Draghi had said that this morning after the ECB meeting... It takes currency wonks like myself to find these gems out there, as it is... But if Draghi had said that, the euro would be running higher, most likely... 

Speaking of Draghi... The ECB is meeting while I write this morning and the rate decision will be made probably before this gets to you, but you can be sure it was a no-go on a rate hike, but that's all a given as far as the markets are concerned, what they really want to see and hear, is the Draghi press conference that will follow, to see if he gives any clues about stimulus policies and their removal... 

Gold found a way to carve out an $8 gain yesterday, to close at $1,206... The shiny metal is down a buck today in the early morning trading, so that's something that could wiped out in heart beat! Let's hope so! 

Let's see now... A quick review of the TOP Stories this morning has JP Morgan saying that the next financial crisis will arrive in 2020... And that we've never learned from the Lehman Brothers demise... The Crypto's 80% plunge is worse than the dot-come crash... And that Jamie Dimon is now backing away from his braggadocio that he could beat Trump in an election... But the most important headline is this: Hurricane Florence to park above Carolina coast line and dump rain for days... That's horrific news, folks, and while I say weather people don't know their rear end from a hole in the ground, I'm hoping their wrong again! 

There's another headline story that says: It's a Debt, Debt, Debt, Debt filled world after Lehman crash... And brother, there aren't truer words that have been spoken! And one of these days, I don't know when, or where it will begin, but all this debt accumulation will come crashing down on anyone that didn't believe it ever could come crashing down...

There's no other way for this to all end, folks... 

I don't care to go down that rabbit hole on a Tub Thumpin' Thursday, which has become my own version of a Fantastico Friday, but I did, and really feel badly for doing so... But it has to be said, and if I've been brave enough to call it out for so long, I may as well, go the distance, eh?

The U.S. Data Cupboard is still searching for "real economic data", and it won't find it today with the stupid CPI printing for August, and the Core Inflation data printing... Yesterday, PPI (wholesale inflation) fell in August by -0.1%... That's crazy! I would have thought that if the Fed was right, and all the other economists that repeated what the Fed said, that by now, Businesses would be forced to raise prices from wage increases, and PPI would be showing us just that! But NOOOOOOOO! It didn't do anything close to that! It showed us that wholesale prices are falling! Crazy... 

On a sidebar... Do you know the #1 song played on juke boxes through the years is? That's right... it's Patsy Cline singing Willie Nelson's song: Crazy... (OK, young kids, juke boxes were music machines in bars and restaurants that you put money in and played music that you picked out from the selection they provided... In today's world, that's a thing called Touch Tones... Where you can connect to it with your smart phone, and play the songs you have on your phone through the Touch Tones system)

To recap... The daily drifting of the currencies and metals turned to an all out rally for the anti dollar asset classes... The ECB is meeting while I write this morning, but more important than the rate decision is the press conference following their no rate change decision! And Chuck is following a ton of stories about how the dollar is looking tired... 

For What It’s Worth… Well, for years on years I’ve stated that the BLS jobs report is nothing but a bunch of lies… filled with adjustments that alter the surveys that are used to guessimate the number of jobs created… Then they mix in their adjustments, and voila! They have a number to show the markets… I’ve long thought that these folks at the BLS were on the payroll of whatever administration that’s in charge… Well, here’s something that goes along with these calls that the BLS jobs report is B.S.

Or, here’s your snippet: “The employment report is unquestionably the most manipulated economic report issued by the Government. The content of the the headline on which the mainstream media bases its broadcast and analysis of the report is entirely disconnected from the actual data contained in the report. The damning data that no one in the financial media or Wall Street seems to be able to find is at the top of the BLS’ report:

As you can see, the “civilian labor force”declined by 469,000 people in August from July. The number of “employed” dropped 423,000. The “not in labor force” increased by nearly 700,000.

With these facts in mind (“facts” at least as far as the BLS numbers contain any shards of credibility), how can the Government claim that 201,000 “jobs were created” in August? How can CNBC say the “economy created more jobs than expected?” Based on the numbers in the details of the BLS report, it looks like, between the decline in the number of people employed and the decline in those not counted as part of the labor force, the economy shed over 1 million jobs.

Titus remarked to me that, in terms of manipulating the data to make the headline report look positive, this is the worst report he’s ever scrutinized:

“In terms of people leaving the labor force, it sure looks like earlier data was was manipulated to hell and back and the BLS just couldn’t hide it any longer. The deltas are f***ing crazy.”

By the way, has anyone besides me noticed that the BLS calls this report the, “Employment Situation Report?” What does that even mean?

Chuck Again… Yes, there was a graph of numbers they were referring to, that you can see if you click the link above… It’s nice to know that it’s not just me calling out the BLS each month…

Currencies today 9/13/18... American Style: A$ .7193, kiwi .6555, C$ .7690, euro 1.1630, sterling 1.3065, Swiss $1.0316, European Style: rand 14.7612, krone 8.2388, SEK 8.9835, forint 279.56, zloty 3.7103, koruna 21.9533, RUB 69.38, yen 111.55, sing 1.3715, HKD 7.8484, INR 71.72, China 6.8640, peso 18.97, BRL 4.1448, Dollar Index 94.89, Oil $69.38, 10-year 2.98%, Silver $14.26, Platinum $802.76, Palladium $979.10, and Gold $1,205.25

That's it for today... and this week of course... And well, next week, I'm going on a mini-vacation, so I'll write on Monday, and then I'm off to visit our good friends up east, Gus and Vivi! Got it? so a mini-vacation for me... But check your Twitter feeds, because you never know when I'll tweet out something that's on my mind! I saw the line of cars on the highways leading away from the N. Carolina coast on TV last night... Good luck to all of you, stay safe, for your life is more important than the possessions... And then finally, next weekend we'll return home for a few days, to watch my darling granddaughter, Delaney Grace, in a play: The Wizard of Oz, which happens to be my all-time fave movie! Steely Dan takes us to the finish line today with their song: Rikki Don't Lose That Number... And so, I hope you have a Tub Thumpin' Thursday, a Fantastico Friday tomorrow, and great weekend! And don't forget to Be Good To Yourself!