France’s 10-year yield moves above 5.10% level

EU mid-market update: France’s 10-year yield moves above 5.10% level and above Treasuries for the first time in about a decade, as the OAT-Bund spread breaks 160bps for the first time since Nov 2011 and Belgium follows to 104bps; Meta creates nonvoting stock to fund AI even as quarterly capex undershoots by $6B; IRGC says seven vessels were hit in the Gulf as Brent clears $111.

Notes/observations

- French debt through 5%, a funding-led wobble across the AI complex and fresh mine strikes in the Gulf frame Thursday’s European open. OAT tens trade at 5.08%, level with Treasuries for the first time in about a decade and close to 170bp over Bunds, the widest since Nov 2011; Kospi closed 3.5% lower at 5,533, erasing Wednesday’s export-led gain; and Brent holds above $110 after seven more vessels were hit.

- Wednesday’s AI bid was narrow, and Asia erased it overnight. SpaceX rose as much as 10% after guiding ARR of $500B to $1.0T by end-2027 and Q1 revenue of $33-37B against $23.4B expected. US indices closed green, but NYSE advancers only matched decliners, NYSE volume ran 11% below its one-month average and VIX slipped to 16.77. Netflix set a fresh 52-week low on its Q4 outlook. After the bell Meta rose 5.5%, CSX 4% and IBM 3%. Lam fell 5% on in-line guidance, Las Vegas Sands lost 3% on a high-end miss, and Tesla’s 1% gain turned into a loss of more than 3% during the call. In Asia the Nikkei closed -2.7% at 62,907, Kospi -3.5% at 5,533, the Hang Seng -3.2% and Shanghai -1.5%, and European press reported the CSI 300 in a bear market after a fall of more than 20%. US futures traded 0.7-1.4% lower overnight. Earlier, the $13B 20-year reopening stopped at 5.469% against 4.883% at the prior reopening, tailing 0.9bps. Bid-to-cover was 2.73x, indirects took 58.2% and dealers 10.2%. The long end cleared, but only about 59bps cheaper than last time.

- France’s 10-year yield crossed 5% for the first time since 2002 and is now at 5.08%, effectively level with the 5.09% US 10-year. The OAT-Bund spread went past 160bps, its widest since November 2011, and was about 163bps at the 02:30 ET check, from 152bps at Wednesday’s open. Contagion is now visible in the semi-core. Belgium’s spread moved beyond 104bps, its widest since 2013, and Italy’s widened to about 120bps from roughly 114bps a day earlier. France now pays about 43bps more than Italy and about 64bps more than Greece at 4.40%. The government plans €340B of medium- and long-term issuance in 2027. Union talks ended without agreement, so the November 5 general strike goes ahead, and Paris renewed its partial curfew. Police banned a planned protest today, a Yellow Vest march is filed for Saturday, and Italy is sending 500 troops to Milan through year-end. Moody’s reviews France’s Aa3 negative rating on Friday, three days before the revenue bill returns to the Assembly on Oct 27. European banks are taking the hit: the SX7P is -2.0%, with Commerzbank and ABN Amro -1.5% and Deutsche Bank -1%. Italy’s BTP Valore retail sale is tracking €16-17B of orders, and that domestic retail buyer has no French equivalent.

- Meta beat on revenue and created a new way to sell stock. Q3 revenue was $64.6B against $63.2B expected, with ad impressions +10% and price per ad +14%. Adjusted EPS of $7.40 excludes a $9.9B legal accrual, which lifted FY26 expense guidance to $175-179B. The board approved a nonvoting Class C listed share effective January 2027, explicitly for “capital raising” given “the scale of investment required” by AI. The overlooked number is Q3 capex of $34.9B against $40.9B consensus, even as the bottom of the FY range rose to $135-145B. Management said compute economics, not demand, are holding back Muse’s global rollout. Muse passed 10M North American setups in six weeks, and first-week shopping volumes were high enough that Meta needed higher Stripe credit limits. Separately, a New Mexico jury found Meta liable on data practices, and the judge imposed $25B of penalties accruing 15% a year until resolved; the state AG had sought up to $219B. The best-funded buyer of AI compute is now building an equity channel while CoreWeave’s 2032s still yield near 15%.

- Gulf escalation is now on a timetable. The IRGC Navy said four vessels were hit and set alight in the northern Gulf and three more struck mines west of Hormuz overnight, and it warned its response could reach US bases. The NYT reported US and Israeli planning for a three-day operation after the Nov 3 midterms against energy, nuclear and missile sites; Israel votes on Oct 27. The State Department ordered non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia after a drone attack on Dammam airport killed one person. Araqchi floated a seven-day plan that would reopen Hormuz on day six, but said there was “little reason” to expect progress. Brent futures opened at $109.83, and Brent is above $111 this morning, against WTI near $98. Kpler says crude flows have recovered to about 24M b/d against a 23.3M b/d pre-war baseline, while Middle East product exports remain about 50% below pre-war levels. The shortage is in refined products, not crude. East Coast distillate stocks were 32% below their five-year average in September, which explains the token 315k bbl loan from the Northeast heating oil reserve. OFAC added shadow-fleet sanctions but licensed offloading of cargoes already at sea. Maersk is -3%, and Airbus and Accor are -1%.

- Tesla’s cash beat came from spending it did not do. Q3 FCF was +$1.53B against an expected -$4.63B, and capex of $4.7B against $7.9B expected explains about half of that gap. FY26 capex was cut to about $20B, roughly 20% lower. Musk said the Terafab chip project with SpaceX and Intel will need “tens of billions”, and $30B of borrowing capacity stays undrawn through 2026. Energy revenue missed at $2.88B against $3.93B, yet Megapack capacity is “almost sold out” for 2027 on data-centre demand. Gross margin of 19.6% beat 18.0%. On the merger, reports say SpaceX and Tesla are weighing an all-stock deal or a new holding company, with a deal targeted by H1 2027 and closing before January 2029. Musk sits on neither special committee, and press reports said his public endorsement could complicate the process. Korean press reported that Tesla and Nvidia will put $2.8B into a Samsung Electro-Mechanics plant. In China, 5G names fell on the read-across from a combined Starlink-Tesla.

- Chip equipment demand now runs into component supply. Lam put preliminary CY27 WFE above $200B against mid-$150B in CY26, a gain of about 29%, and said that figure is supply-constrained, with ten new tier-one fabs due in 2027. Even so, the stock fell 5%: component shortages pushed December shipments into March, China’s share will fall meaningfully from 35%, and the tax rate rises to about 16.5% from 11%. Texas Instruments showed the same squeeze further down the chain. Data-centre revenue rose ~95% y/y to about 13% of sales, analog pricing turned positive in H2, and OSAT partners are supplying “less capacity than TI wanted”. BESI orders came in at €342.6M against €298M consensus, +96% y/y on hybrid bonding, and the stock is +4.5% premarket. Micron said it does not “see a time” when memory comes into balance, and its Taoyuan union is striking for 24 hours from 09:00 local today after the Taichung union settled. Infineon is -3%. BOK Governor Shin named AI investment risk and global long yields as policy concerns.

- Russia moved toward a trilateral format, and Washington eased its grip on Lukoil. After meeting Witkoff, Putin agreed “in principle” to three-way talks in mid-November, and a US official said a technical trilateral meeting has been accepted. A Putin aide said the war is “moving toward an end”, while Zelenskiy said any deal needs a referendum. OFAC issued GL 131K, which permits contingent contracts for the sale of Lukoil International but not completion of a sale. Novak said diesel exports could be fully restored by year-end, a direct offset to the product shortage above if it happens. Fighting continued: Moscow’s mayor reported 630 drones inbound overnight, Kyiv was hit by missiles and Russia struck a Kharkiv gas facility. Brussels told SpaceX it “must urgently restore full services” in Ukraine. Russian PPI accelerated to 8.6% y/y from 6.5%, which complicates Friday’s CBR decision.

- A PHP flaw found with AI tools has become a live government-level incident. The WSJ reported it could affect up to 70% of websites. Details leaked, the patch was pushed out a day early, and Amazon said exploitation began on Oct 17, before disclosure. Nikkei counted about 1.5M unpatched hosts. Japan’s PM Takaichi issued an “urgent request” for operators to patch overnight, Japan’s MOF suspended parts of its website, and German authorities and hospitals took sites offline. Cloudflare reported millions of exploit attempts, and Beijing, Seoul and the White House issued coordinated warnings. Markets get three things from this: a demand shock for web security, a test of cyber-insurance aggregation clauses, and evidence that AI-driven bug discovery shortens the gap between finding a flaw and exploiting it.

- Asian central banks are tightening, and Japan is close to calling 2%. The BSP hiked 50bps to 5.50% against 25bps expected, its fourth hike of the cycle. It raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 6.0% from 5.4%, and Governor Remolona said an off-cycle move was discussed and that he is unsure policy is restrictive enough. The BOK held at 3.00% and said “no country can avoid” the global rise in long yields. New Zealand Q3 CPI came in at 3.7%, the fourth quarter above band, with a 98% chance of a hike priced for Oct 28 and Westpac now calling 3%. Nikkei reported the BOJ is likely to say inflation has reached its 2% target at the Oct 29-30 meeting. Rengo set a 6% 2027 wage target, including 4% base pay, after settlements of 5.01% this year. The SNB minutes said a heightened willingness to intervene in FX is “no longer necessary”. Turkey’s CBRT is expected to cut 100bps today, the only easing on the regional calendar.

- The long end is repricing everywhere, with fiscal supply under it. US 10s are at 5.09%, gilts at 5.38% and JGB 10s at 2.88%. CME FedWatch puts the chance of a hike at the Oct 28 FOMC at 16.1%, while MBA applications fell 5.3% for a seventh straight weekly decline. UK September borrowing was £24.5B, £1.9B above a year earlier, six days before the Oct 28 Budget. A new poll puts Labour at 28%, the Conservatives at 23% and Reform at 22%. The Bundesbank said Germany probably stagnated in Q3 as low Rhine water hit exports. Berlin’s tax estimate shows about €20B of extra revenue, but finance officials see little room for tax cuts. Eurostat put the 2025 euro-area deficit at 3.0% of GDP. SAP explicitly cited “US rates above 5%” and oil in its Q4 backlog caution.

- Nvidia is now prepaying its own supply chain. At GTC Berlin it gave KYEC a $1.1B capacity-reservation advance for new US testing sites and said testing capacity will double in 2027. It also expects Amkor’s advanced packaging capacity to rise more than 300% by end-2028 and SPIL’s co-packaged optics capacity to rise 15x by mid-2027, and Amkor confirmed $1.3B of Korean investment under multi-year agreements worth $3B. Samsung Electro-Mechanics signed a binding ABF substrate supply deal backed by Nvidia investment capital. The DSX POD design cuts on-site deployment to as little as 14 days, but only on a site that already has utility power. The upstream vendor financing mirrors the downstream neocloud financing the market is already questioning. The grid remains the constraint. FERC’s chairman said reliability has “never been more tenuous”, and commissioners said large-load losses now carry the same reliability consequences as losing a generator. Trump says data centres are “mandated” to make their own electricity.

- Europe’s earnings split between defensive volume and AI order books, with China luxury still weak. Nestlé’s organic growth of 4.0% beat 3.4%, with real internal growth of 2.8%. Deconsolidating Russia will add about CHF900M to net debt. Roche sales of CHF16.13B beat CHF15.75B. Hermès missed slightly at €4.10B against €4.13B, and its CFO called China “very difficult”, citing a new 20% offshore-income tax applied three years retroactively; price rises of 4-5% are under consideration for 2027. Nokia’s AI and Cloud revenue rose 123%, orders rose 118%, and it guided Q4 sales +20-24% q/q, with Optical and IP growth of 25-30% in 2027. Barclays missed on adjusted PBT at £2.32B against £2.44B and announced 5k job cuts, citing AI efficiencies, alongside a £500M buyback. It also reaffirmed £20B of committed private-credit exposure while the BoE examines its marking. SAP’s Q3 services revenue fell 5%, its cloud backlog rose 26% to €24.1B, and it announced a €10B buyback. Kuehne+Nagel is +3% on an Amazon partnership, and Eutelsat is +11.5% on its IRIS² payload order with Thales.

- Cross-asset: France now prices like a peripheral sovereign: the OAT yields the same as Treasuries and more than BTPs, with Belgium following. Equities are rotating into defensives, with Food and Beverage +0.9% and Telecoms +0.6% against Banks and Travel at -2.0%. Brent above $111 and the 50% shortfall in Gulf product exports keep diesel tighter than crude, while Novak’s diesel pledge and the Lukoil licence are the only supply offsets. AI capital needs are moving onto equity and vendor balance sheets: Meta’s nonvoting shares, Nvidia’s prepayments and Tesla’s Terafab. Lam showed that supply, not demand, now limits chip equipment. The calendar is dense: Friday: Moody’s on France, the flash PMIs and the CBR. Oct 27: The French budget resumes and Israel votes. Oct 28: The FOMC decision, the UK Budget, the RBNZ, SK hynix results and Australian CPI. Oct 29: The ECB, with the BOJ on Oct 29-30. Nov 3 and Nov 5: The US midterms, then the BoE and the French general strike.

- Asia closed %. EU indices %. US futures %. Gold %, DXY %; Commodity: Brent %, WTI %; Crypto: BTC %, ETH %.

Asia

- Bank of Korea (BOK) left the Repo Rate unchanged at 3.00% (as expected) for its 1st pause in 4 decisions under the current tightening cycle. Statement noted that the decision to keep policy steady was unanimous. Board to determine timing, pace of further rate increases while assessing trends in inflation, domestic economy, financial stability.

- New Zealand Q3 CPI Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.8%e.

Global conflict/tensions

- US ordered non-essential diplomatic personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid escalating security concerns following deadly attacks attributed to the Iran-backed Houthis.

- Renewed speculation that US/ Israel have developed specific plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the American midterm elections.

- Russia and Ukraine said to agreed to technical level trilateral talks.

- Pres Trump stated that was close to a deal on Russia-Ukraine talks; Did not need to put sanctions on when you’re close to a deal; had right to impose sanctions any day.

Europe

- BOE Gov Bailey warned that the AI industry’s historic level of borrowing represents a risk to financial stability.

Americas

- Democrats said to be preparing to investigate US Def Sec Hegseth if they regain control of the House of Representatives after midterm elections.

Energy

- IRGC Navy noted that four vessels were hit and caught fire in Northern Gulf. Three other vessels struck mines west of Strait of Hormuz overnight and caught fire. Response could extend to US bases in region if Washington continues encouraging vessels to cross mined waterway.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [FTSE -0.66% at 10,681.60, DAX -1.11% at 25,361.64, CAC-40 -1.46% at 7,806.01, IBEX-35 -1.68% at 18,999.76, FTSE MIB -1.75% at 48,773.50, SMI -0.33% at 14,504.20, S&P 500 Futures -1.10%].

Market focal points/key themes: European equity bourses buckled on Thursday as the STOXX 600 fell 0.8%, with the CAC 40 leading declines of more than 1% after the French 10-year yield broke cleanly above 5%—levels last seen in the early-2000s sovereign cycle—while limited progress on France’s 5.4% GDP deficit and Macron’s pledge to contain further riots left allocators pricing an extended structural stalemate. The most decisive individual swings were Telia’s 5% advance after it raised 2026 EBITDA-growth and free-cash-flow guidance on stronger Q3 service revenue, Rentokil Initial’s 4.5% gain on solid revenue, maintained guidance and a $200m buyback, and Galderma’s 4% rise after lifting its 2026 sales-growth forecast, set against Bankinter’s 5% drop when Q3 profit merely matched consensus and net-interest-income growth decelerated, Hermès’ 5% decline on a soft Asia-ex-Japan sales miss, and Barclays’ 4.5% slide as higher costs and impairments offset resilient income. Technology names that had already been pressured by Meta’s new nonvoting share class and Asian semiconductor weakness—ASML, ASM International, Infineon, Soitec and BE Semiconductor—extended losses of 3–5%, while airlines IAG, Lufthansa and easyJet weakened on the renewed climb in crude above $112. Defensive heavyweights Nestlé and selected healthcare names provided limited ballast through better-than-expected organic growth and pharmaceutical momentum, yet the combination of French sovereign stress, Southern European social friction and AI-capex dilution anxiety kept broader continental risk appetite firmly constrained.

Equities

Consumer discretionary: Hermès [RMS.FR] -5.0% (Q3 sales growth missed elevated expectations as demand remained soft in Asia excluding Japan), International Consolidated Airlines Group [IAG.UK] -2.5%, Lufthansa [LHA.DE] -2.0%, easyJet [EZJ.UK] -2.0% (airlines weakened as the renewed rise in crude prices increased the prospective fuel-cost burden).

Healthcare: Galderma [GALD.CH] +4.0% (raised its 2026 sales-growth forecast following stronger Q3 trading), Sartorius [SRT3.DE] +2.0% (nine-month operational constant-currency sales grew 8.1% and free cash flow jumped 55%, with lab-division guidance refined toward the top of its range), Roche [ROG.CH] +1.0% (Q3 sales advanced 7% at constant exchange rates and 8% in Swiss francs, sustaining strong pharmaceutical momentum), Merck KGaA [MRK.DE] +1.5% (defensive healthcare and telecom rotation as a 3% rise in Brent intensified inflation and growth concerns).

Technology: Nokia [NOKIA.FI] -3.0% (Q3 revenue rose 9.7% and AI-and-cloud sales more than doubled, but unchanged €2.1–2.6bn operating-profit guidance disappointed elevated expectations), Infineon [IFX.DE] -3.0%, Siemens Energy [ENR.DE] -3.0%, Siemens [SIE.DE] -2.5% (European semiconductor and AI-electrification names tracked Lam Research's 7.4% after-hours decline on weaker guidance and renewed concern over hyperscaler financing), SAP [SAP.DE] -1.0% (shares reversed despite a raised 2026 outlook and record €10bn quarterly revenue as the broader technology tape weakened).

Telecom: Telia [TELIA.SE] +5.0% (raised 2026 EBITDA-growth guidance to 3–4% from about 3% and free-cash-flow guidance to at least SEK9bn after stronger Q3 service revenue and cash generation), Deutsche Telekom [DTE.DE] +1.0% (defensive healthcare and telecom rotation as a 3% rise in Brent intensified inflation and growth concerns).

Energy: Shell [SHEL.UK] +1.5%, BP [BP.UK] +1.5%, TotalEnergies [TTE.FR] +1.5% (energy producers gained as crude prices climbed on renewed Middle East supply concerns).

Consumer staples: Nestlé [NESN.CH] +2.0% (Q3 organic sales beat expectations as Petcare and the Americas improved, while the 2026 outlook was affirmed), J Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] +2.5% (H1 sales rose 2.6% and pretax profit increased 5.2%, prompting a raise to the lower end of full-year operating-profit guidance), Kerry Group [KYGA.IE] +1.5% (Q3 volume growth accelerated to 4.1%, nine-month EBITDA margin expanded 50bp and management signalled another buyback while maintaining EPS guidance).

Industrials /defence: Rentokil Initial [RTO.UK] +4.5% (Q3 revenue rose 3.4%, full-year guidance was maintained and the company announced a $200m buyback), Kuehne+Nagel [KNIN.CH] +1.0% (Q3 EBIT and earnings rose 53%, supported by air-freight growth and sea-logistics market-share gains, prompting another guidance increase),
RELX [REL.UK] +1.0% (nine-month update indicated continued underlying growth across the portfolio and maintained the full-year outlook).

Financial: Bankinter [BKT.ES] -5.0% (nine-month net profit rose 11% but Q3 profit merely matched consensus, net-interest-income growth decelerated and JPMorgan trimmed its price target), Barclays [BARC.UK] -4.5% (Q3 results disappointed as higher costs and credit impairments offset resilient income), Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE] -2.5%, Commerzbank [CBK.DE] -2.5%, HSBC [HSBA.UK] -2.0%, Lloyds Banking Group [LLOY.UK] -2.0%, NatWest [NWG.UK] -1.5% (oil above $112 revived inflation and growth concerns, while UK lenders also faced uncertainty over a possible bank-surcharge increase in the October 28 Budget), Deutsche Börse [DB1.DE] +1.0% (exchange operators benefited from elevated volatility and heavy earnings-season trading activity).

Speakers

- SNB Sept Minutes noted that an increased willingness to intervene in FX markets was no longer necessary in the current environment. Medium-term inflationary pressure was only slightly higher compared with the monetary policy assessment in June. Reiterated current monetary conditions were appropriate to ensure price stability over the medium term. Still no signs of second-round effects, and core inflation had risen only slightly. Moderate growth was forecast for the coming quarters, stimuli were expected from abroad.

- Philippine Central Bank Policy Statement noted that the decision to hike by 50bps was to contain 2nd round effects and firmly anchor inflationary expectations. Needed strong response to brooding inflation pressure as it was committed to price stability. Prepared to take further monetary actions as needed. Inflation to accelerate in coming months; el nino conditions pose inflation risks.

- Philippine Central Bank (BSP) Gov Remolona post rate decision press conference noted that policy was restrictive but not sure if restrictive enough; Off cycle move was discussed. Noted that BSP did intervene in FX a little bit but not defending any specific level, Concerned about weak PHP currency (Peso) and potential inflationary impact.

- Japan's Rengo trade union confederation set a 6% wage hike target for 2027; Targeted 15% increase by 2030.

- China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) Jiang Chenghua noted that to improve trade friction response mechanism. To improve export controls and security review and strengthen regulation to counter sanctions.

Currencies

- USD Index below 101.50 for a 3-week low. Price action mainly following lower bond yields as dealers noted concerns of the sustainability of debt-funded investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

- USD/JPY at 3-week low around 157.20 by mid-session. Dealers stressed that results of Japan's 2027 wage talks could help shape the BOJ’s interest-rate increases.

- Dealers noted that the widening of Euro Zone sovereign-bond spreads since the middle of September was a notable but the questions begs whether it was a resurgence of sovereign risk. French OAT-German Bund yield spreads probing the +170bps area due to concerns about France's budget and social unrest. French yeilds has outstripped what can be explained by fundamentals.

- The 10-year German Bund yield last at 3.39%, France 10-year Oat at 5.07% and 10-year Gilt yield at 5.38%; 10-year Treasury yield: 5.08%; 10-year JGB: 2.85%.

Economic data

- (EU) Euro Zone Sept EU27 New Car Registrations: 9.3 v 4.5% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands Sept House Price Index M/M: -0.4% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.3% prior.

- (NL) Netherlands Oct Consumer Confidence: -34 v -33 prior.

- (JP) Japan Sept Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 60.4% v 60.4% prelim.

- (NO) Norway Sept Trend Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.6% prior.

- (NO) Norway Q3 Industrial Confidence: 3.4 v 2.5 prior.

- (DK) Denmark Oct Consumer Confidence Indicator: -17.2 v -13.7 prior.

- (HU) Hungary Sept Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.7%e.

- (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) raised the Overnight Borrowing Rate by 50bps to 5.50% (more-than-expected).

- (FR) France Oct Business Confidence: 97 v 96e; Manufacturing Confidence: 105 v 101e.

- (MY) Malaysia Mid-Oct Foreign Reserves: $132.1B v $131.8B prior- (TR) Turkey Oct Consumer Confidence: 84.8 v 91.9 prior.

- (PL) Poland Sept Real Retail Sales M/M: -3.8% v -2.9%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.6%e; Retail Sales (current prices) Y/Y: 6.7% v 7.3%e.

- (TH) Thailand Foreign Reserves w/e Oct 16th: $277.1 v $276.9B prior.

- (HK) Hong Kong Sept Unemployment Rate: 3.9% v 3.8%e.

- (HK) Hong Kong Sept CPI Composite Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e.

- (IS) Iceland Sept Wage Index M/M: 0.7% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 5.6% v 5.7% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (UK) DMO sold £1.0B in 0.125% Aug 2031 Inflation-linked Gilts (UKTi); Real Yield: 1.141% v 0.933% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.99x v 4.26x prior.

Looking ahead

- (RO) Romania Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 8.3% prior.

- (AR) Argentina Oct Consumer Confidence: No est v 41.2 prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (AT) ECB’s Kocher (Austria).

- 05:30 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds.

- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bills.

- 05:30 (VN) Vietnam Finance Ministry announcement on upcoming bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 05:40 (UK) BOE 7-day short-term repo operation (STR).

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v -0.2% prior.

- 06:00 (UK) Oct CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -20e v -9 prior; Trends Selling Prices: No est v 12 prior; Business Optimism: -40e v -36 prior.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Sept PPI M/M: No est v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.5% prior.

- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut One-Week Repo Rate by 100bps to 36.00%.

- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Traders Survey.

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Sept M3 Money Supply M/M: 0.6%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 11.3%e v 11.3% prior.

- 08:00 (CA) Canada Oct CFIB Business Barometer: No est v 47.9 prior.

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Sept Unemployment Rate: 3.0%e v 3.0% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 200Ke v 199K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.71Me v 1.71M prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.9%e v 1.3% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 2.9%e v 3.1% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.

- 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Oct 16th: No est v $723.5B prior.

- 09:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Jansson.

- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Oct Advance Consumer Confidence: -17.0e v -16.5 prior.

- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Tax Collections (BRL): No est v 235.6B prior.

- 10:00 (US) Sept Leading Index: -0.1%e v -0.1% prior.

- 10:00 (IT) ECB’s Panetti (Italy).

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories.

- 11:00 (US) Oct Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 12e v 14 prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2-year Bonds.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 5-Year TIPS.

- 18:00 (AU) Australia Oct Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: No est v 49.6 prior; Services PMI: No est v 51.9 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 51.3 prior.

- 19:01 (UK) Oct GfK Consumer Confidence: -14e v -13 prior.

- 19:30 (JP) Japan Sept National CPI Y/Y: 2.1%e v 1.9% prior; CPI (ex-fresh food) Y/Y: 2.1%e v 1.7% prior; CPI (ex-fresh Food/energy) Y/Y: 2.3%e v 1.9% prior.

- 20:30 (JP) Japan Oct Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.1 prior; Services PMI: No est v 51.3 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 52.3 prior.

- 23:30 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills.