Foreign tourism continues to grow in CEE

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

In Czechia, industrial producer prices rose by 0.3% m/m and 1.6% y/y in July, while ILO unemployment increased by 17,100 y/y in Q2.
Serbia discusses a 9.2% minimum wage increase to €600 for 2027, alongside a higher tax-free wage threshold.
No major releases scheduled for today.

Economic developments

Since we have already passed the middle of August and the holiday season is still in full swing for many, it is a good time to take a closer look at tourism across CEE. Foreign visitors remain particularly important for Croatia and Slovenia, where they accounted for around 82% and 69% of total tourist nights in Jan-May 2026, respectively. This leaves these economies more exposed to changes in external demand but also means that a solid tourism season can provide meaningful support to services exports and economic activity. By contrast, tourism in Poland and Romania remains more domestically driven, limiting the direct contribution from foreign tourism but making the sector less dependent on external demand. At the same time, foreign tourism strengthened across the region in Jan-May 2026, with Slovakia recording the strongest increase, followed by Poland, Slovenia and Croatia. If this momentum carries into the peak summer months, tourism should provide some support to services activity and external balances across the region, with the largest economic impact likely in countries where foreign tourism has a greater weight. However, it remains to be seen to what extent heatwaves and higher fuel prices impacted the main summer tourism season.

Market movements

CEE markets remain focused on fiscal risks, sovereign supply and global risk sentiment. In Slovakia, the Fiscal Council warned that the fiscal space has been exhausted, with debt projected to rise towards 74% of GDP by 2029 without further consolidation, keeping pressure on the government to deliver additional measures. In Poland, attention turns to Wednesday’s government bond auction, where the Finance Ministry plans to offer six series with a PLN 7-12bn supply range, providing the next test of demand for Polish duration. Meanwhile on the FX side, the Hungarian forint edged lower against the euro, trading around 363, while broader CEE FX moves remained relatively contained.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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