Euro struggles to make gains on back of Iran peace deal

Matthew Ryan, CFA Ebury

Despite the litany of headlines out of the war in Iran, volatility in the EUR/USD pair has been surprisingly subdued in the past few weeks.

The euro has finally broken out of its narrow trading range in the past fortnight, however, following both, the signing of the MoU to end the Iran war and secondly, expectations for a widening in rate differentials between the US and Euro Area.

The end to the conflict in the Middle East should be bullish for the euro, though the common currency is now trading around its lowest level since mid-March against the dollar. We see this as partly a consequence of the lasting damage of the war, with the Euro Area potentially heading for stagflation, while the US continues to power ahead almost immune to the downside effects of the energy crisis.

It’s worth remembering that this is also not a full peace deal. Both sides now have a maximum of 60 days in order to reach a long-term accord, so market participants may be reluctant to fully commit to risk on trading until officials put pen to paper on a more permanent peace agreement.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Ebury

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

GBP/USD holds losses below 1.3550 after weak UK jobs data

GBP/USD holds losses below 1.3550 in European trading hours on Tuesday. The UK ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.9% in the three months to June, against a forecast of 4.8%, while Employment Change arrived at 83K in the same period versus 147K previous. Weak UK labor data keep the British Pound under pressure, driving the pair lower.

EUR/USD stays below 1.1600 despite upbeat sentiment data

EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and trades below 1.1600 in the European session on Tuesday, even after the data from the Eurozone and Germany highlighted improving economic sentiment in August. The US Dollar (USD) benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere as tensions in Middle East remain high, making it difficult for the pair to turn north.

Gold sticks to losses below $4,400 as USD recovers further from two-month low

Gold remains depressed below the $4,400 mark through the first half of the European session, snapping a two-day winning streak amid a broadly firmer US Dollar. Inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices back the case for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in 2026.

Pi Network holds steady amid app studio costs surge to push user adoption

Pi Network extends a consolidation range capped below $0.0900 holding above the $0.0839 support level. PI token remains under pressure as the Core Team pushes for real user adoption by raising costs for AI-powered app creation, effective from August 24. Leverage-linked risk exposure eases as Open Interest declines despite an increase in social interest.

Fiscal concerns and doubts on Fed independence send US yields to long-term highs

US Treasury yields keep rising across the curve this week, with the yield for the 30-year Treasury bond reaching its highest level since 2007, during the global financial crisis, at 5.33% so far on Monday. A mix of concerns about the ballooning US fiscal deficit and growing doubts about the Federal Reserve’s Independence are increasing pressure on US Government Bonds.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.